Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, Florida)
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
Total: 215.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Heat |
| 16-11 (59%) | All | 11-11-2 (50%) |
| 8-6 (57%) on the road | Location | 6-5-1 (54%) at home |
| 15-11 (57%) as favorite | Status | 4-4 (50%) as underdog or pick |
| 7-4 (63%) as road favorite | Location Status | 1-1 (50%) as home underdog |
| 0-0 (0%) | Head To Head | 0-0 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 11-16 (40%) against the over on the season.
- Miami is 14-10 (58%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 5-9 (35%) against the over at home.
- The Heat is 7-5 (58%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Last Season’s Stats)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 115.2 | 103.3 | 46.5 | 35.0 | 43.3 | 25.6 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.3 | W6 | 9-1 |
| MIA | 112.8 | 109.7 | 45.3 | 37.9 | 43.9 | 26.4 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | L1 | 6-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Alex Ducas (sprained lower back) is OUT.
- Adam Flagler (fractured right fourth metacarpal) is OUT.
- Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
- Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (sprained left knee) is OUT.
- Jaylin Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
Heat
- Josh Christopher (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Keshad Johnson (G League — two-way) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Nikola Jovic (sprained left ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Pelle Larsson (sprained right ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Josh Richardson (right heel inflammation) is DOUBTFUL.
Series History
The Thunder went 2-0 against the Heat last season (1-0 at home, 0-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-1.5)
OKC nearly gave up a monster lead last night in Orlando against the Magic, but they came away with the win. Now they’re just a slight favor in Miami against the Heat, who haven’t played since Monday. Even with all the rest, I still think the Thunder should be able to win this one. They’ve played the more consistent basketball all season long, and the Heat just dropped a 125-124 decision to the Pistons.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (215.5)
OKC is still the best defense in the league, and Miami is a top-10 one at that, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see yet another low-scoring game. The Thunder and the Heat are 2nd and 3rd in the NBA in net rating, so either way, this is sure to be a close one. I still lean towards defense, so I’m taking the under on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 17-8 | 14-10-1 | 13-12 |
| Zack | 21-6 | 18-9 | 16-11 |
| Craig | 20-6 | 19-5-2 | 15-11 |