It’s Week 1.
Which means the Heartland Sports staff has once again decided that watching college football isn’t enough.
We also need to make predictions.
Against the spread.
With actual records attached.
This is how reputations are built.
It’s also how reputations are destroyed.
After Week 0, Matt has the early lead after opening the season with a perfect 3-0 record. Craig and Zack are tied for second, while Caleb is trying to convince everyone that one bad week doesn’t mean anything.
And technically, he’s right.
There’s an entire season left.
That means, there are also a lot of opportunities for all of us to make terrible decisions.
The Week 1 slate gives us plenty of those opportunities, beginning with No. 7 Miami traveling to Stanford on Friday night and continuing through Monday’s SMU-Florida State matchup. The weekend’s marquee game, however, is unquestionably Clemson at No. 11 LSU, where Lane Kiffin makes his debut in Baton Rouge.
The rules remain simple.
Three games.
Against the spread.
Every week.
Keep winning and you climb the standings.
Keep losing and eventually you start pretending this competition doesn’t matter.
Let’s get started.
The Game Everyone Wants to Talk About: Clemson at LSU
There is no question about it.
Clemson at LSU is the Week 1 game everyone around here is watching.
Three of the four Heartland Sports writers have this game on their cards.
The problem?
We aren’t exactly in agreement about what’s going to happen.
Caleb and Craig are taking Clemson and the points.
Matt is taking LSU to cover.
That gives us a very simple situation heading into Saturday night:
Either Caleb and Craig are going to feel really good, or Matt is going to spend Sunday reminding everyone that he told us so.
The matchup is particularly fascinating because it features two programs entering the season with very different storylines. LSU is beginning the Lane Kiffin era at home, while Clemson is trying to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 campaign. Clemson has also named Christopher Vizzina its starting quarterback after three seasons behind Cade Klubnik.
Caleb: Clemson +10
“I’m just not sold on this LSU team, especially with all these distractions they’ve had leading up to the first game of the season. I think Clemson has the squad to make a big bounce back this season and should keep this game scrappy and close.”
Craig: Clemson +10.5
“This matchup is really intriguing when looking at the head coaches. Dabo Sweeney is coaching for his job this season, meanwhile Lane Kiffin is looking for a quick start in Baton Rouge. I think LSU ultimately wins this game, but not by two scores.”
Matt: LSU -10
“Tiger Stadium will be electric for Lane Kiffin’s Baton Rouge debut, backed by a revamped roster featuring high-profile transfers like Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones. Meanwhile, Clemson enters following a volatile 7-6 campaign and remains severely outgunned in perimeter playmaking depth due to Dabo Swinney’s ongoing avoidance of the transfer portal. Go with the home team here with a big win.”
Ole Miss vs. Louisville: Two Writers Like the Rebels
The second game to attract multiple Heartland Sports selections is Louisville at Ole Miss.
Both Caleb and Craig are taking Ole Miss.
And both are laying the same number:
Ole Miss -6.5.
It’s an interesting matchup because Ole Miss enters a new era without Lane Kiffin, who left for LSU, while Louisville represents a legitimate test for the Rebels early in the season.
Caleb: Ole Miss -6.5
“Ole Miss looks to show the college football world that they don’t need Lane Kiffin to be a dominant force. While Louisville is a solid team I am just not sure they have enough to stop this Ole Miss Offense.”
Craig: Ole Miss -6.5
“It’s a new era for Ole Miss and one that comes with an extra focus on defense. Pete Golding may be a defensive minded coach, but the Rebels still have some serious weapons on offense. I like the Rebels to cover this spread at home.”
Matt
Miami (-24.5) at Stanford | I feel like the betting market is significantly sleeping on the massive trench mismatch in this game. While Stanford picked up a face-saving win over Hawaii in Week Zero, their defensive front lacks the bodies and sheer mass to survive a premier Power 4 onslaught. Miami rolls in with a blistering, high-powered offense built to physically wear down the Cardinal right from the opening kickoff. I think the result will be a comfortable blowout for the Hurricanes.
LSU (-10) vs. Clemson | Tiger Stadium will be electric for Lane Kiffin’s Baton Rouge debut, backed by a revamped roster featuring high-profile transfers like Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones. Meanwhile, Clemson enters following a volatile 7-6 campaign and remains severely outgunned in perimeter playmaking depth due to Dabo Swinney’s ongoing avoidance of the transfer portal. Go with the home team here with a big win.
SMU -3.5 at Florida State | Closing out the holiday weekend with a standalone Labor Day showcase, Florida State continues to drag the systemic flaws of last season’s late collapse onto the field. The Seminoles are leaning on a shaky offense quarterbacked by transfer Ashton Daniels, who finds himself under heavy pressure behind an entirely overhauled offensive line. SMU counters with elite continuity anchored by three-year starter Kevin Jennings, a veteran signal-caller boasting over 7,700 career yards. The Mustangs are going to win this one and get the cover.
Zack
Miami (-24.5) at Stanford | The Cardinal didn’t exactly impress against Hawaii last week, and Miami is looking to make a run another run at the College Football Playoff. I like the Hurricane to start the season on a high note with a big win.
Indiana (-40.5) vs. North Texas | The Hoosiers are the reigning champs, and North Texas is dealing with all kinds of turnover after a great season last year. Regardless of the early kickoff, the fans are going to be rocking, and this is going to be a massive blowout.
Texas Tech (-42.5) vs. Abilene Christian | The Red Raiders had one of the top offenses in the nation last year, and they’ve got some questions at quarterback. Still, they’re going to put up big numbers, and what better way to kickoff the season than an opponent like Abilene Christian? This one is going to be ugly.
Caleb
Clemson (+10) vs. LSU | I’m just not sold on this LSU team, especially with all these distractions they’ve had leading up to the first game of the season. I think Clemson has the squad to make a big bounce back this season and should keep this game scrappy and close.
BYU (-51.5) vs. Utah Tech | Utah Tech is just a bad team, losing last week 54-0 to Montana St. BYU should be able to just walk all over Utah Tech on Saturday.
Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. Louisville | Ole Miss looks to show the college football world that they don’t need Lane Kiffin to be a dominant force. While Louisville is a solid team I am just not sure they have enough to stop this Ole Miss Offense.
Craig Has a Little Bit of Everything
Craig’s card might be the most balanced of the four:
SMU -2.5
Ole Miss -6.5
Clemson +10.5
He’s got a favorite.
Another favorite.
And an underdog.
He’s also holding the distinction of selecting the smallest spread on the entire board.
SMU (-2.5) at Florida State | This will be a highly contested matchup, but I’m giving the edge to the Mustangs despite being on the road. Florida State already has a game under their belt, and they gave up 319 yards against New Mexico State. The SMU offense should have no problems moving the ball on Monday night.
Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. Louisville | It’s a new era for Ole Miss and one that comes with an extra focus on defense. Pete Golding may be a defensive minded coach, but the Rebels still have some serious weapons on offense. I like the Rebels to cover this spread at home.
Clemson (+10.5) at LSU | This matchup is really intriguing when looking at the head coaches. Dabo Sweeney is coaching for his job this season, meanwhile Lane Kiffin is looking for a quick start in Baton Rouge. I think LSU ultimately wins this game, but not by two scores.
The Week 1 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After Week 0, here’s where we stand:
| Rank | Writer | Record | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| T-2 | Craig | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| T-2 | Zack | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | Caleb | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Matt has the early lead.
But three games per week means things can change quickly.
A perfect 3-0 week for someone at the bottom can completely change the standings.
A 0-3 week at the top can do the same thing in the opposite direction.
That’s why Week 1 matters.
And there are plenty of opportunities for chaos.
Week 1 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Clemson +10 | BYU -51.5 | Ole Miss -6.5 |
| Craig | SMU -2.5 | Ole Miss -6.5 | Clemson +10.5 |
| Matt | Miami -24.5 | LSU -10 | SMU -3.5 |
| Zack | Miami -24.5 | Indiana -40.5 | Texas Tech -42.5 |
Week 1 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Game: Clemson at LSU
Three of four writers selected this game.
Caleb and Craig are taking Clemson.
Matt is taking LSU.
There is no middle ground.
Someone is going to be very happy Saturday night.
Someone else is going to pretend they never liked their pick in the first place.
Most Popular Favorite: Miami
Matt and Zack are both taking Miami -24.5 at Stanford.
That gives the Hurricanes the distinction of being the only team selected by two writers that isn’t part of the Clemson-LSU disagreement.
Biggest Spread: BYU -51.5
.Caleb is going all in on the Cougars using all the light bulbs on the scoreboard.
Second-Biggest Spread: Texas Tech -42.5
Zack owns this one.
He’s asking Texas Tech to win by at least 43 points.
And if you’re wondering whether that’s a lot of points, yes.
Yes, it is
Smallest Spread: SMU -2.5
Craig has the smallest number of the week with SMU laying just 2.5 points at Florida State.
Matt is also on SMU, but at -3.5.
So the Mustangs are another game we’ll be watching closely.
Underdog Watch: Clemson
Only two writers are taking underdogs this week.
Both are taking Clemson.
Caleb gets the Tigers at +10.
Craig gets them at +10.5.
Matt is the lone writer willing to lay the points with LSU.
And Now We Find Out Who Actually Knows What They’re Doing
That’s the thing about this competition.
Week 0 was fun.
It gave Matt a perfect start and gave the rest of us something to chase.
But Week 1 is where things start getting serious.
The schedule is loaded.
The spreads are massive.
The games are meaningful.
And, unfortunately, we have all convinced ourselves that we know enough about college football to predict exactly what is going to happen.
That’s probably the most dangerous part.
Matt enters the week in first place at 3-0.
Craig and Zack are right behind him.
Caleb needs a big week.
And with three picks each, there are nine games worth of potential movement between now and Monday night.
By the time SMU and Florida State kick it off Monday evening, we could have a new leader.
Or Matt could still be sitting comfortably at the top.
Or Zack could have somehow won three games while laying more than 40 points twice.
At this point, nothing would surprise me.
That’s college football.
That’s the spread.
And that’s Friday Locks.
Week 1 is here.
Let’s see who actually knows what they’re doing.