We’re starting to figure this thing out.
Or at least that’s what we’re telling ourselves.
After a disastrous September, the Heartland Sports crew has now put together back-to-back 9-3 weekends. Week 5 gave us our first collective rebound, Week 6 kept the good times rolling, and now we’re heading into Week 7 with a little something we haven’t had much of this season: confidence.
Zack led the way last weekend with a perfect 3-0 record, while Caleb, Craig and Matt each finished 2-1.
That’s another winning weekend for everybody.
Two straight weeks of nine wins and three losses.
We’re not saying we’ve officially figured out college football, because we’re probably a little too superstitious to tempt fate like that. But things are moving in the right direction, and we’d certainly rather be writing about winning weekends than trying to explain another 3-9 disaster.
Now comes the hard part.
Can we make it three straight winning weekends?
Week 7 brings us a loaded slate, including Ohio State at Indiana, Notre Dame at BYU, Ole Miss against Missouri and Texas looking to bounce back against Florida.
We’ve also got a couple of games where we agree on the side, including Utah’s trip to Colorado and Texas’ home matchup with Florida.
Let’s get into it.
The Game Everyone Is Taking: Utah at Colorado
We’re starting in the Big 12, where Utah is getting plenty of attention from our crew.
Caleb and Zack are both taking Utah -14.5 against Colorado.
The undefeated Utes have looked impressive this season, and both believe they’ll have little trouble handling the Buffaloes.
Colorado, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency at quarterback and hasn’t shown the defensive strength needed to slow down a team like Utah.
The Utes have dominated most of their schedule, even if the competition hasn’t always been the toughest. Now they get a road opportunity against a Colorado team that has struggled to establish an identity.
Caleb: Utah -14.5
“Colorado is simply not a good team, and Utah might be the best team in the Big 12. Colorado has had QB issues and does not have a strong defense. Utah should be able to control this game pretty handily.”
Zack: Utah -14.5
“The Utes head to Boulder undefeated, and while they haven’t played a tough opponent, they have dominated for the most part. The Buffaloes aren’t exactly a difficult matchup, and even though this game is on the road, I like Utah to win big.”
Both acknowledge that Utah hasn’t faced the most difficult schedule, but neither believes Colorado is equipped to take advantage of that.
The question is whether Utah can win by at least 15 points on the road.
Caleb and Zack are betting that the answer is yes.
Texas Is Another Popular Pick
Texas is looking to bounce back after a rivalry loss, and we expect the Longhorns to take care of business against Florida.
Caleb and Matt are both backing Texas to cover.
Caleb is laying 11.5 points, while Matt has Texas at -10.5.
The Longhorns return home with something to prove, and Florida arrives with significant questions at quarterback and concerns about its defense.
Texas has the talent to control the game on both sides of the ball, while the Gators have struggled to maintain the momentum they built with their upset of Ole Miss.
Caleb: Texas -11.5
“Texas is looking for a get-back game, while Florida has struggled since the big upset over Ole Miss. I don’t see how this game is close.”
Matt: Texas -10.5
This is a premier bounce-back spot to back a Texas team returning home after a rivalry loss. Florida is caught in a massive quarterback crisis with starter Aaron Philo highly questionable, potentially forcing true freshman Tramell Jones Jr. into his first career start in a hostile Austin environment. They face an elite Longhorns defense that ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted EPA per play, while Arch Manning enjoys a matchup against a porous Gators secondary that ranks 131st against the pass. Expect the Longhorns to dominate the trenches, exploit Florida’s weak 3rd-down defense (125th nationally), and comfortably clear this double-digit line.
The difference between the two picks is only one point, but the message is identical.
Both believe Texas has a significant advantage and should be able to win comfortably.
Ohio State at Indiana: A Difference of Opinion
One of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend also features one of our biggest disagreements.
Ohio State travels to Indiana in a game that has attracted both sides of the spread.
Craig is taking the Buckeyes -3.5.
Matt is taking Indiana +3.5.
That means one believes Ohio State’s offense will be the difference, while the other is trusting Indiana’s defense, turnover production and home-field advantage.
Craig: Ohio State -3.5
“Indiana is every bit as good defensively as they were a year ago. But, they lack the offensive firepower from their championship run. Give me the Buckeyes in this one due to them having the better offense.”
Craig respects what Indiana brings defensively, but he believes the Hoosiers don’t have the same offensive punch that helped fuel their championship run.
He’s backing Ohio State to win by at least four.
Matt: Indiana +3.5
Indiana’s pass rush registered five sacks against Julian Sayin last season, and their current roster has won or tied the turnover battle in 30 consecutive games. I expect Indiana to attack Ohio State’s run defense (60th in success rate allowed), shortening the game and keeping Jeremiah Smith off the field to cover this tight number in a raucous Bloomington environment.
Matt sees a much tighter matchup.
This is a fascinating contrast in philosophies.
Craig is backing the more explosive offense.
Matt is betting that Indiana’s defense and ability to control the game will keep the margin inside a field goal.
Caleb
Texas (-11.5) vs. Florida
Texas is looking for a get-back game, while Florida has struggled since the big upset over Ole Miss. I don’t see how this game is close.
Auburn (+19.5) vs. Georgia
Auburn has been able to keep games close. While I expect Georgia to be in full control of this game, I see Auburn keeping this game close.
Utah (-14.5) at Colorado
Colorado is simply not a good team, and Utah might be the best team in the Big 12. Colorado has had quarterback issues and does not have a strong defense. Utah should be able to control this game pretty handily.
Craig
Ohio State (-3.5) at Indiana
Indiana is every bit as good defensively as they were a year ago. But, they lack the offensive firepower from their championship run. Give me the Buckeyes in this one due to them having the better offense.
Ole Miss (-5.5) vs. Missouri
This is one of the more exciting matchups this weekend. Missouri is on a roll, while Ole Miss is looking to climb back to the top. I think the Rebels offense will be too much for Missouri to handle.
UCLA (-2.5) vs. Wisconsin
UCLA will be without Nico Iamaleava in this matchup. I don’t see that being an issue. Nico hasn’t exactly been the reason behind the Bruins’ success, and I think they’ll be just fine Saturday.
Matt
Indiana (+3.5) vs. Ohio State
Indiana’s pass rush registered five sacks against Julian Sayin last season, and their current roster has won or tied the turnover battle in 30 consecutive games. I expect Indiana to attack Ohio State’s run defense (60th in success rate allowed), shortening the game and keeping Jeremiah Smith off the field to cover this tight number in a raucous Bloomington environment.
Texas (-10.5) vs. Florida
This is a premier bounce-back spot to back a Texas team returning home after a rivalry loss. Florida is caught in a massive quarterback crisis with starter Aaron Philo highly questionable, potentially forcing true freshman Tramell Jones Jr. into his first career start in a hostile Austin environment. They face an elite Longhorns defense that ranks 2nd nationally in adjusted EPA per play, while Arch Manning enjoys a matchup against a porous Gators secondary that ranks 131st against the pass. Expect the Longhorns to dominate the trenches, exploit Florida’s weak 3rd-down defense (125th nationally), and comfortably clear this double-digit line.
Mississippi State (+15.5) at LSU
Mississippi State enters this matchup an impressive 5-1 record against the spread, powered by an offense averaging 39 points per game under sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor. Meanwhile, LSU is sitting at 2-4 ATS overall and 0-2 ATS when favored by 14.5 points or more. Expect the Bulldogs to exploit the Tigers’ defensive lapses, match them score-for-score in a high-octane track meet, and comfortably cover this bloated number.
Zack
Northwestern (-7) at Michigan State
The Wildcats have been one of the big surprises of the season for the Big Ten. A close loss at Indiana and a dominant win at home against Penn State has me thinking they’ll be able to handle the Spartans on the road just fine, especially if Chip Kelly keeps the offense rolling.
Notre Dame at BYU (+11)
A top-10 matchup features two undefeated teams who have yet to play a ranked opponent. Neither has played a particularly difficult schedule, but I like the Cougars at home to at least cover this giant spread.
Utah (-14.5) at Colorado
The Utes head to Boulder undefeated, and while they haven’t played a tough opponent, they have dominated for the most part. The Buffaloes aren’t exactly a difficult matchup, and even though this game is on the road, I like Utah to win big.
The Week 7 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After back-to-back 9-3 weekends, the Heartland Sports crew is finally starting to look like a group that knows what it’s doing.
Of course, we aren’t getting ahead of ourselves.
Caleb, Craig and Matt each went 2-1 in Week 6, while Zack led the way with a perfect 3-0 performance.
That means we’ve now posted 18 wins and six losses over the last two weeks.
Not bad after the way September started.
Here’s where things stand heading into Week 7:
| Rank | Writer | Week 6 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 2-1 | 12-9 |
| 2 | Zack | 3-0 | 12-9 |
| 3 | Caleb | 2-1 | 9-12 |
| 4 | Craig | 2-1 | 9-12 |
Week 7 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Texas -11.5 | Auburn +19.5 | Utah -14.5 |
| Craig | Ohio State -3.5 | Ole Miss -5.5 | UCLA -2.5 |
| Matt | Indiana +3.5 | Texas -10.5 | Mississippi State +15.5 |
| Zack | Northwestern -7 | BYU +11 | Utah -14.5 |
Week 7 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Pick: Texas
Caleb and Matt are both backing Texas against Florida.
The Longhorns are looking for a bounce-back performance, and both believe the matchup favors them significantly.
Florida’s struggles since its upset of Ole Miss have raised questions about whether the Gators can compete consistently against top-level competition.
Texas has an opportunity to make a statement at home.
The Other Consensus: Utah
Caleb and Zack are both laying 14.5 points with Utah against Colorado.
The Utes have looked dominant for much of the season, and both writers believe Colorado’s quarterback problems and defensive struggles make this a favorable matchup.
Utah will need to prove it can maintain that dominance on the road, but our writers aren’t particularly worried.
Game of the Week: Ohio State at Indiana
This is one of the most intriguing matchups on the schedule.
Craig is taking Ohio State -3.5.
Matt is taking Indiana +3.5.
Both make compelling arguments, which makes this one of the most interesting picks to follow throughout the weekend.
Will Ohio State’s offense be the difference, or can Indiana’s defense keep the Buckeyes in check?
Biggest Spread: Auburn +19.5
Caleb has the biggest underdog number on the board, taking Auburn and 19.5 points against Georgia.
He expects Georgia to control the game but believes Auburn can keep the margin within three touchdowns.
That’s a sizable cushion, but Georgia has the talent to make covering it difficult.
Underdog Watch
Matt is taking Indiana +3.5 and Mississippi State +15.5.
Zack is taking BYU +11 against Notre Dame.
Caleb is taking Auburn +19.5 against Georgia.
Those are four underdog selections spread across three cards, and each writer has a different reason for believing the underdog can hang around.
Matt is trusting Indiana’s defense and Mississippi State’s offense.
Zack is counting on BYU’s home-field advantage.
Caleb is betting on Auburn to keep the game closer than the spread suggests.
The Streak Watch
We’re not going to say we’re on a hot streak.
That would be tempting fate, and we’re not sure the football gods would appreciate the confidence.
But the results speak for themselves.
Two consecutive 9-3 weekends.
Four winning records in Week 5.
Four winning records again in Week 6.
And Zack is coming off a perfect 3-0 performance.
Now we get to find out whether the group can make it three straight winning weekends.
Let’s See If We Can Make It Three
A couple of weeks ago, things were looking pretty bleak.
We were coming off a combined 3-9 weekend, and the season standings weren’t exactly inspiring confidence.
Now, we’ve got back-to-back 9-3 weekends and a little momentum heading into Week 7.
And the race for first place is getting tighter.
There are plenty of opportunities to get things right.
Of course, there are also plenty of opportunities to get things wrong.
That’s college football.
We’re not ready to declare ourselves experts just yet, and we’re definitely not ready to start celebrating.
But we’re feeling better than we were a couple of weeks ago.
Week 7 is here.