Let’s start by looking back on yesterday. We hit the spread and the money line with the Twins at Mariners but we lost on the under which was actually what I had as my “Best Bet” for the day. That said, we were still 2-1 on our bets and would have been plus $2.70 on $10 wagers.
Today we’ve got Cleveland (46-48) at Pittsburgh (41-53) as our random MLB game. The Guardians are throwing Logan Allen (3-2, 3.47 ERA) and the Pirates are putting Mitch Keller (9-4, 3.31 ERA) on the mound.
The Pitchers
Allen is posting a 3.47 ERA on the season but is used sparingly. He hasn’t thrown more than six innings since May 29th, when he went seven against Baltimore, and his last three outings have been 3.2, 4, and 3 innings. He’s allowed a total of 12 earned runs in his last five appearances.
Keller has gone more than six innings twice in his last five starts. He’s got a 3.31 ERA on the season and has allowed 10 runs over his last five appearances.
This matchup has to favor Keller, if nothing else from the standpoint of longevity on the mound. Once the game turns to the bullpen (look at last night’s Twins/Mariners game as a great example) everything can change and I expect Cleveland to go to the relief arms sooner than Pittsburgh.
Over the last five games the Guardians have been scored on 30 times, while the Pirates aren’t much better having seen 24 runners cross home plate in the last five outings.
The Lineups
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are leading the offensive charge for the Guardians. Ramirez has hit a team best 14 home runs while Naylor leads the way in batting average (.310) and RBIs (69). Cleveland posted 11 runs on Pittsburgh last night, in a shutout victory, but had been pretty anemic before that, scoring just 10 runs total in the last four games.
For Pittsburgh it’s Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen who lead the way from the batter’s box. Suwinski is has knocked a team-high 19 home runs, and leads the Pirates with 48 RBI, while McCutchen is leading the way with a .267 batting average. Pittsburgh has struggled as of late to manufacture runs. The Pirates have scored just 13 runs over the last five games.
The Streaks
Cleveland’s win on Monday night snapped a 4-game losing streak. Consequently it was also Pittsburgh’s fourth consecutive loss.
The Odds
Pirates -1.5
Pirates -110 on the ML
O/U 8.5
I think I pretty much like everything about this game. Like last night, I expect it to be a tight finish so I would take the Guardians at +1.5.
I think the O/U is inflated a but because if last night’s game. I think we hit the under on this one.
Both teams are even at -110 on the ML which helps me have some security on thinking the game will be tight. I like the home team in this situation, especially with Pittsburgh having the pitching advantage. That’s why this is my best bet.
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