Let’s try a new feature, shall we. Something has to get us through the rest of July and then August so that we can finally get back to football season and that might as well be baseball. We’re going to take a random game and break it down against the spread to provide, what we hope will be, the best bet for that game.
Today we’ve got Minnesota (48-46) at Seattle (46-46). The Twins are putting Sonny Gray on the mound (4-3, 2.89 ERA) and the Mariners are going to respond with Logan Gilbert (7-5, 3.66 ERA).
The Pitchers
Gilbert has the higher of the two ERAs on the season but over his last five games he’s allowed an average of just 1.6 runs. As a staff Seattle has been pretty solid over the last five with opponents scoring an average of 3 runs per game.
Sonny Gray has been the most consistent of the two hurlers. He takes the mound tonight with a 2.89 ERA on the season and over the last five starts he’s allowed 2.8 runs per game.
Gilbert may be on a bit of a hot streak (3-2 record over the last five starts with 25 KO’s) but we can’t look past Gray’s consistency here. With the starters, I think we still have to give an ever so slight nod to the Twins.
Now, with that said, Minnesota has been shelled, over the last five games, to the tune of 7.2 runs per game. The quicker Seattle can get the Twins to turn to the bullpen the better.
The Lineups
Seattle hasn’t necessarily been matching the 7.2 runs allowed by Minnesota over the last five games. In fact, they’ve been pretty anemic at just an average of 2.2 runs scored per game over the last five. Two players in the Seattle line up have recorded multiple hits off Gray but two players, including Julio Rodriguez, are hitless against him.
It’s not all roses for the Twins either. They come into this game with a higher runs scored per game average, over the last five, at 4.8 but they also have a line up that has seen its troubles against Gilbert. Only one player in the starting line up (Carlos Correa) has multiple hits recorded against Gilbert and four players are hitless against him.
The Streaks
Minnesota travels to Seattle coming off a sweep of Oakland. Both teams are 3-2 over the last five games.
The Odds
Mariners -1.5
Mariners -140 on the ML
O/U 7.5
My least favorite bet is the money line. The Mariners are coming off a slate where they lost two of three at home to the Tigers and the Twins just swept the A’s in Oakland.
I do like the Twins at +1.5 for all of the reasons mentioned above. The Mariners may sneak away with a win here but I like this to be a one-score game.
The O/U is where I am camping out on this one. Seattle has had offensive woes over the last five games and Minnesota’s line up has a history of struggles against Logan Gilbert. I like this game to be a 4-3 type final score which puts us under the 7.5 runs and makes this my favorite bet of the night for this game.
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