We crashed hard last weekend.
After two weeks of mostly respectable results, the Heartland Sports Friday Locks competition finally delivered the kind of Saturday that makes you question why any of us are allowed to pick football games in the first place.
Zack was the only one who managed to produce a winning weekend, going 2-1.
Caleb and Matt both finished 1-2.
Craig?
0-3.
Flatlined.
So naturally, instead of reconsidering our life choices, we’re back for Week 3 with another 12 picks and approximately zero lessons learned.
The rules remain simple.
Three games.
Three against-the-spread picks.
Every week.
Keep winning and you climb the standings.
Keep losing and eventually the group chat gets uncomfortable.
And this week, there is one game that has managed to unite the entire Heartland Sports staff.
No. 2 Georgia at Arkansas.
All four writers are laying the same 24.5 points.
That’s either a sign of tremendous analytical agreement…
or a terrible omen.
Let’s get started.
The Game Everyone Is Taking: Georgia at Arkansas
There isn’t much debate about the consensus pick this week.
All four of us are taking Georgia -24.5 at Arkansas.
Caleb.
Craig.
Matt.
Zack.
All four are expecting the Bulldogs to roll.
Georgia comes into this one looking like one of the most complete teams in the country, while Arkansas is coming off a disappointing performance and now gets to deal with the No. 2 team in the country.
The question isn’t whether Georgia should win.
The question is whether the Bulldogs can win by at least 25 points.
All four of us say yes.
Caleb
“Arkansas is just a bad team, I’m shocked the line is this low and see the Bulldogs to be able to do whatever they want this Saturday and roll through this week.”
Craig
“Georgia being on the road here doesn’t scare me one bit. This is an Arkansas team that just got embarrassed a week ago. The Bulldogs will have their way with the Razorbacks.”
Matt
“Arkansas is heavily outmatched here. They look completely disjointed at this point, especially after being thoroughly pushed around by Utah last week. Georgia has looked absolutely flawless, outscoring their opening stretch of opponents by a massive 133-point margin.”
Zack: Georgia -24.5
“The Bulldogs are the #2 team in the country for a reason, and they prove it once again this weekend as they dominate the Razorbacks. Arkansas is coming off a blowout loss to Houston, and I think Georgia gives them another one, easily covering the spread.”
Four writers.
One game.
One number.
One side.
Georgia -24.5.
That’s about as much agreement as you’re going to find around here.
And considering how last weekend went, maybe we should all be a little nervous.
Virginia Is Getting Plenty of Love
Georgia isn’t the only game appearing on multiple cards.
Virginia -10 against West Virginia also landed on two of the four Heartland Sports picks.
Caleb and Zack are both backing the Cavaliers.
The matchup is an interesting one because West Virginia has looked good early in the season, but both writers believe Virginia represents a significant step up in competition.
Caleb: Virginia -10
“West Virginia has looked good so far, but they finally face a good team and I don’t see the West Virginia offense to have success like they have had so far.”
Zack: Virginia -10.5
“The Cavaliers have looked pretty solid through the first couple weeks, but so have the Mountaineers. Unfortunately for West Virginia, I think their luck has run out, and I see Virginia winning this rivalry game big.”
The only difference is the number.
Caleb is laying 10.
Zack is laying 10.5.
Either way, both expect Virginia to win the rivalry game by more than a touchdown.
Individual Picks
Matt
Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas | Arkansas is heavily outmatched here. They look completely disjointed at this point, especially after being thoroughly pushed around by Utah last week. Georgia has looked absolutely flawless, outscoring their opening stretch of opponents by a massive 133-point margin.
North Carolina (+3.5) at Clemson | Clemson enters this game entirely overvalued by the public market, which is artificially forgiving their brutal 51-10 blowout loss against LSU. The underlying metrics are highly alarming for Clemson: quarterback Tait Reynolds collapses entirely under defensive pressure, having completed only a single pass when his pocket is compromised. North Carolina features a fundamentally elite red-zone defense.
Alabama (-19.5) vs. Florida State | Florida State has severe depth and identity issues along both lines of scrimmage right now. Heading into Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team clicking on all cylinders is a nightmare spot. Alabama’s defensive front will completely dictate the game script, taking away the run early and forcing a mistake-prone Florida State passing attack into obvious, predictable long-yardage downs.
Caleb
SMU (+1.5) at Louisville | SMU has a very explosive offense and I see that being a problem for Louisville. I think this is going to be a high scoring fun game to watch but I see SMU pulling off the win on the road.
Virginia (-10) vs. West Virginia | West Virginia has looked good so far, but they finally face a good team and I don’t see the West Virginia offense to have success like they have had so far.
Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas | Arkansas is just a bad team, I’m shocked the line is this low and see the Bulldogs to be able to do whatever they want this Saturday and roll through this week.
Craig
Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas | Georgia being on the road here doesn’t scare me one bit. This is an Arkansas team that just got embarrassed a week ago. The Bulldogs will have their way with the Razorbacks.
LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss | The most anticipated matchup of the week. LSU is simply the better team here and Lane Kiffin knows how to coach his guys through controversy.
Texas (-30.5) vs. UTSA | This large spread makes me a bit nervous. That being said, I’m picking Texas to cover because they dominated a Texas State team that took UTSA to the ropes.
Zack
Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas | The Bulldogs are the #2 team in the country for a reason, and they prove it once again this weekend as they dominate the Razorbacks. Arkansas is coming off a blowout loss to Houston, and I think Georgia gives them another one, easily covering the spread.
West Virginia at Virginia (-10.5) | The Cavaliers have looked pretty solid through the first couple weeks, but so have the Mountaineers. Unfortunately for West Virginia, I think their luck has run out, and I see Virginia winning this rivalry game big.
New Mexico at Oklahoma (-21.5) | The Sooners need a “feel-good game” after falling to Michigan last weekend, and the Lobos are on the menu. I think Oklahoma rebounds a bit with a big win in front of the home crowd.
The Week 3 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After three weekends, here’s where we stand:
| Rank | Writer | Last Week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 1-2 | 6-3 |
| 2 | Zack Caleb | 2-1 | 5-4 |
| T-3 | Caleb | 1-2 | 3-6 |
| 4 | Craig | 0-3 | 3-6 |
Matt remains in first place despite his 1-2 weekend.
Zack is right behind him after going 2-1.
Caleb and Craig both have some work to do.
But we’re only three weeks into the season.
There is plenty of time for someone to make a run.
Or completely fall apart.
Week 3 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | SMU +1.5 | Virginia -10 | Georgia -24.5 |
| Craig | Georgia -24.5 | LSU -2.5 | Texas -30.5 |
| Matt | Georgia -24.5 | North Carolina +3.5 | Alabama -19.5 |
| Zack | Georgia -24.5 | Virginia -10.5 | Oklahoma -21.5 |
Week 3 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Game: Georgia at Arkansas
This one isn’t even close.
All four of us are taking Georgia -24.5.
Caleb.
Craig.
Matt.
Zack.
The Bulldogs are the only unanimous selection on the Week 3 board.
That’s significant because we don’t exactly make it easy to find agreement around here.
Georgia is coming off a dominant start to the season, while Arkansas enters this game after a rough outing.
We all believe the Bulldogs can win by at least 25 points.
Now we get to find out whether we’re all geniuses…
or whether four people agreeing on the same college football bet is the beginning of the end.
The Other Most Popular Game: West Virginia at Virginia
Two of us are taking Virginia.
Caleb has Virginia -10.
Zack has Virginia -10.5.
The Mountaineers have looked good early, but both writers believe Virginia represents the first major test and that the Cavaliers can create enough problems offensively and defensively to win comfortably.
Biggest Spread: Texas -30.5
Craig owns the biggest number on the board.
He’s asking Texas to beat UTSA by at least 31 points.
That’s a lot of points.
Even when you’re confident in the favorite, laying more than four touchdowns leaves very little room for error.
Craig knows it.
He even admits the large spread makes him nervous.
But after watching Texas dominate Texas State, he’s willing to trust the Longhorns to do it again.
Smallest Spread: SMU +1.5
Caleb has the smallest spread selected by anyone this week.
And he’s taking the underdog.
SMU is getting just 1.5 points at Louisville, and Caleb believes the Mustangs have enough offensive firepower to win the game outright.
It’s essentially a pick’em.
Caleb just wants the extra point and a half.
Underdog Watch
Only two of us are taking underdogs this week.
Caleb is taking:
SMU +1.5
Matt is taking:
North Carolina +3.5
That’s it.
Craig and Zack are riding favorites across all three of their selections.
Matt’s North Carolina pick gives him the biggest underdog cushion, while Caleb’s SMU selection is essentially asking the Mustangs to win the game outright.
Two underdogs.
Two different approaches.
We’ll find out Saturday whether either one pays off.
The Georgia Line Watch
We’re all laying exactly the same number:
Georgia -24.5.
There is no line disagreement.
No half-point drama.
No different books.
No “I got it at -23.5” excuses.
We’re all on Georgia -24.5.
Which means the Bulldogs’ final margin could produce the rarest event in Heartland Sports history:
A clean sweep.
Of course, that would require all four of us to actually be right.
And after last weekend?
We’re not exactly ready to bet the house on that happening.
And Now We Find Out If We Learned Anything
That’s the thing about this competition.
One week you’re feeling pretty good about yourself.
The next week you’re staring at an 0-3 record wondering how a football team you picked to win by three touchdowns managed to lose outright.
That’s Craig right now.
Zack, meanwhile, gets to walk into Week 3 with the only winning record from last weekend.
Matt is still sitting in first place overall.
Caleb is looking for a big weekend to close the gap.
And everyone is riding Georgia.
We’ve got SMU getting 1.5 points at Louisville.
Virginia and West Virginia in a rivalry game.
LSU traveling to Ole Miss.
Texas laying more than four touchdowns.
North Carolina getting 3.5 at Clemson.
Alabama laying nearly 20 against Florida State.
Oklahoma trying to bounce back against New Mexico.
So, naturally, we’re completely confident in our selections.
At least until Saturday.
That’s college football.
That’s the spread.
And that’s the Heartland Sports guessing competition.
Week 3 is here.
Let’s see who actually knows what they’re doing.