Kickoff: 6:30 PM CT
Location: TDECU Stadium (Houston, Texas)
Television: FOX
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Twitter: Follow @HeartlandPokes for live tweets during the game
The #18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) and the #20 Houston Cougars (5-1) meet on Saturday in a top-20 matchup that features two of the top offenses in the Big 12. The Cowboys are riding their momentum behind big playmaker quarterback Drew Mestemaker, and the Cougars are led by an extremely efficient quarterback in Conner Weigman.
The Cowboys have won 4 straight games, including back-to-back conference wins, both of which they hadn’t come close to doing in the last couple of seasons. Mestemaker has launched to the top of 2027 Mock Draft Boards, and he’s got a couple of solid receivers in Wyatt Young (27 catches for 462 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Justin Bowick (26 catches for 442 yards and 5 touchdowns). Oklahoma State has a solid run game, as well, led by Caleb Hawkins (106 carries for 524 yards and 2 touchdowns). Ayo Adeyi (28 carries for 108 yards) is getting a handful of carries as well, and he’s performed well when given the opportunity.
The Cougars have won three straight since losing 28-26 at Texas Tech. Weigman has thrown 15 touchdowns and just one interception, and he spreads the ball around effectively. His favorite target so far this season has been tight end Patrick Overmyer (33 catches for 400 yards and 6 touchdowns), but keep an eye on receivers Amare Thomas, Trent Walker, and Koby Young. Houston also has a couple of solid running backs in Re’Shaun Sanford II (75 carries for 404 yards and 2 touchdowns) and Makhi Hughes (80 carries for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns). Weigman is a threat on the ground as well, rushing for 177 yards and 6 touchdowns on his 48 carries.
The Cowboys and the Cougars both rank in the top half of the conference in total defense and points allowed per game, but they have their weaknesses. Oklahoma State has struggled to stop teams with a solid run game, ranking near the bottom of the Big 12 in allowing 149 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Houston is near the bottom in the conference in pass yards, allowing 248.3 yards per game. The Cougars could be without starting cornerback Jalen Mayo, one of the team’s top defensive players.
This game is setting up to be a classic Big 12 shootout, so the final decision could come down to whoever can make a big play on defense or perhaps even special teams. The Cougars are favored, but Houston is known for being unable to fill up their own stadium. Oklahoma State fans have made it clear via social media that they plan on doing their best to fill up the stadium in orange and white. Regardless of who is loudest in the stands, this is a tough road matchup for the Cowboys, and a win would add to the incredible turnaround after the week 1 loss to Tulsa, plus it would put them deeper into the Big 12 Championship conversation.
How the Cowboys Win
Oklahoma State has trailed early in each of their last two games before pulling ahead in the second half to win. Taking care of business earlier rather than later in what is expected to be a tight game would do them well. The Cowboys have struggled to put it in the end zone once making their way into the red zone. Only 15 touchdowns have resulted from 29 red zone trips, and while all 12 red zone field goal attempts have gone through the uprights, they’re going to need touchdowns if they want to keep winning games. Find the end zone when given the opportunity, and the Cowboys should win this one.
How the Cougars Win
Houston’s offense hasn’t been quite as deadly as Oklahoma State’s, but they can keep up if they need to. They play extremely efficiently on offense, but the defense has holes, especially in the secondary. If the Cougars can force Mestemaker into making mistakes and maybe even turn the ball over, then they’ll be in a good position to pick up the win.
Odds & Predictions
Staff Score Predictions
| Staff | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Caleb | Houston 27 – Oklahoma State 21 |
| Craig | Oklahoma State 33 – Houston 30 |
| Matt | Houston 34 – Oklahoma State 24 |
| Zack | Oklahoma State 34 – Houston 31 |
An Oklahoma State Win Would…
- Give the Cowboys five straight wins for the first time since 2023.
- Improve the Cowboys to 5-1 or better for the first time since 2022.
- Give the Cowboys four more wins than last season, matching the third-best improvement in school history.
- Give the Cowboys back-to-back conference road wins for the first time since the 2021-22 seasons.
- Improve Eric Morris to 5-1 as Oklahoma State’s head coach.
- Improve Eric Morris to 2-1 in road games as OSU’s head coach.
- Improve Eric Morris to 51-35 in his head coaching career.
- Improve Eric Morris to 3-0 in Big 12 conference games.
- Improve the Cowboys’ all-time record against Houston to 11-11-1.
- Improve the Cowboys’ all-time record at Houston to 6-5-1.
- Improve the Cowboys ‘ record to 21-13 in true road games at Texas schools since 2009.
- Mark the Cowboys’ 139th win since the beginning of the 2010 season, ranking among the top 15 in the FBS.
Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
- Drew Mestemaker has passed for at least 300 yards in four straight games, matching the third-longest streak in OSU history held by Brandon Weeden and the longest since Mason Rudolph had streaks of seven and five from 2016-2017.
- Mestemaker has passed for at least 200 yards in 20 straight games – the longest active streak in the FBS. He’s passed for at least 250 yards in nine of his past 10 games.
- Mestemaker has thrown at least one touchdown in 19 of his past 20 games.
- Dating back to 2008, OSU is 84-14 when winning the turnover battle.
- Dating back to 2005, OSU is 50-7 when not committing a turnover.
- OSU has won 88 of its past 91 games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003. Including games when opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, OSU has won 96 of its past 100.
- OSU is 41-23 in its past 64 games decided by fewer than 10 points.
- OSU is 54-10 in its past 64 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.
- OSU has won five of its past seven overtime games.
- Caleb Hawkins has scored multiple touchdowns in six of his past 12 games. He’s scored at least three touchdowns in five of his past 11.
- Hawkins has rushed for at least 100 yards in six of his past 11 games.
- Wyatt Young has had more than 100 receiving yards in seven of his past 13 games.
- Israel Polk has at least one catch in 25 of his past 27 games played.
- Miles Coleman has at least one catch in each of his past 24 games played.
- Wyatt Young has at least one catch in each of his past 20 games played.
- Caleb Hawkins has at least one catch in 17 of his past 18 games played.
- Chris Barnes has at least one catch in each of his past 16 games played.
- Ethan Wesloski has made at least one tackle in 44 consecutive games, including every game he’s played since the beginning of the 2023 season. He’s had at least three tackles in 16 straight games.
- Jack Puckett has made at least one tackle in 35 of the 39 games of his career and at least three tackles in 30 games. He played at the Div. II level until 2026.
- Isaiah Chisom has made at least two tackles in 31 straight games.
- Quinton Hammonds has made at least two tackles in 16 straight games.
- Jaleel Johnson has made at least two tackles in 12 of his past 14 games.
- Christian Bodnar has made at least three tackles in nine of his past 11 games.
- LaDainian Fields has started 11 straight games for OSU, the longest streak of any player on the roster