Kickoff: 12 PM CT
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium (Manhattan, Kansas)
Television: TNT and HBO Max
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Twitter: Follow @HeartlandPokes for live tweets during the game
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-3) take on the Kansas State Wildcats (4-4) on Saturday on the road in Manhattan, Kansas. The Cowboys are coming off a 51-49 loss to the Iowa State Cyclones. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have stumbled since starting the season 3-0, winning just once in their last five tries.
Oklahoma State maintains one of the country’s hottest offenses, and they are on pace to go down as one of the best in Cowboy football history. They have scored more than 30 points in seven straight games, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is a big reason why. The QB has thrown for 2,649 yards and 25 touchdowns on his way to being talked about as a future #1 NFL Draft pick. He is complemented by running back Caleb Hawkins, who is third in the conference with 906 rushing yards.
The issue lately has been the defense. The offense scores at will, but the defense doesn’t always get the job done. Plenty of times this season, the second half has been a turning point where the defense comes up with some key stops to fuel the Cowboys to a big win. In the two recent losses, however, it was quite the opposite.
Kansas State is playing without their top two quarterbacks on the depth chart, and that should mean trouble for their offense. The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, which means something headed into a tough environment like the Little Apple, but the defense is going to need to show up if they are going to head back to Stillwater with the win.
How the Cowboys Win
Can the defense get a dang stop? LaDainian Fields is tied for 1st in the country in interceptions, and Linebacker Ethan Wesloski has made a name for himself by racking up 76 tackles (3rd in the Big 12) and 4 sacks (5th in the Big 12), so it’s not like playmakers don’t exist on that side of the ball. The defense cannot give up chunk yardage plays to the Wildcats. Keeping control of the pace of the game while on defense and winning the turnover battle will be key to winning this one.
How the Wildcats Win
Kansas State’s best shot at winning this game is disrupting Drew Mestemaker. The Wildcats allow just 151.9 passing yards per game, which is the best mark in the conference. However, they give up the most yards on the ground at 166.1 yards per game. If they can get in the backfield and cause problems for Mestemaker, perhaps even a big day from Caleb Hawkins would not be enough for the Cowboys to get the win.
Odds & Predictions
Staff Score Predictions
| Staff | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Caleb | Oklahoma State 41 – Kansas State 35 |
| Craig | Oklahoma State 38 – Kansas State 30 |
| Matt | Oklahoma State – Kansas State |
| Zack | Oklahoma State 38 – Kansas State 27 |
An Oklahoma State Win Would…
- Give the Cowboys five more wins than last season, matching the best year-to-year improvement in OSU history. The only other years when OSU won five more games than the previous season were 1944 and 1921.
- Improve the Cowboys to 6-3 or better for the first time since 2023.
- Improve Eric Morris to 6-3 as Oklahoma State’s head coach.
- Improve Eric Morris to 2-3 in road games as OSU’s head coach.
- Improve Eric Morris to 52-37 in his head coaching career.
- Improve Eric Morris to 4-2 in Big 12 conference games.
- Improve OSU’s all-time record against Kansas State to 44-29.
- Give the Cowboys wins in 11 of its past 18 games against Kansas State.
- Improve OSU’s all-time record against Kansas State in Manhattan to 20-19.
- Mark OSU’s first win in Manhattan since 2020.
- Mark the Cowboys’ 140th win since the beginning of the 2010 season, ranking among the top 15 in the FBS.
Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
- Oklahoma State has scored more than 30 points in seven consecutive games for the first time since an eight-game streak during the 2021 and 2022 seasons. OSU’s single-season streak record of nine was set in the final nine games of the 2011 season.
- Drew Mestemaker has passed for at least 300 yards in seven-straight games, matching Mason Rudolph’s school record streak that was set from 2016-2017.
- Mestemaker has passed for at least 200 yards in 23-straight games – the longest active streak in the FBS. He’s passed for at least 250 yards in 12 of his past 13 games.
- Drew Mestemaker has thrown for at least 300 yards with multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games to tie the longest single-season streak in Big 12 history (done five other times: 2003 B.J. Symons, 2007 & 2008 Graham Harrell, 2013 Bryce Petty, 2017 Will Grier).
- Mestemaker has thrown at least one touchdown in 22 of his past 23 games.
- Wyatt Young has a touchdown reception in seven straight games. Justin Bowick has one in six straight games.
- Oklahoma State has punted just 14 times this season – two fewer than any other FBS team.
- Dating back to 2008, OSU is 85-14 when winning the turnover battle.
- Dating back to 2005, OSU is 51-7 when not committing a turnover.
- OSU has won 88 of its past 91 games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003. Including games when opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, OSU has won 96 of its past 100.
- OSU is 41-25 in its past 66 games decided by fewer than 10 points.
- OSU is 54-10 in its past 64 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.
- OSU has won five of its past seven overtime games.
- Caleb Hawkins is one of four FBS players and two Power 4 players (Duke’s Nate Sheppard) who have hit 100 yards from scrimmage in seven games this season.
- Hawkins scored multiple touchdowns in seven of his past 15 games.
- Hawkins has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of his past 14 games.
- Wyatt Young has had more than 100 receiving yards in seven of his past 16 games.
- Miles Coleman has at least one catch in each of his past 27 games played.
- Wyatt Young has at least one catch in each of his past 23 games played.
- Caleb Hawkins has at least one catch in 20 of his past 21 games played.
- Ethan Wesloski has made at least one tackle in 47 consecutive games, including every game he’s played since the beginning of the 2023 season. He’s had at least three tackles in 19 straight games.
- Isaiah Chisom has made at least two tackles in 33 of his past 34 games.
- Quinton Hammonds has made at least two tackles in 19 straight games.