Tip-Off: 6 PM CT
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
Spread: Oklahoma City (-2.5)
Thunder/Cavs Trends Against The Spread
|16-13 (55.2%)||10-20 (33.3%)|
|11-5 (68.8%) on the road||7-8 (46.7%) at home|
|1-0 (100%) as favorite||9-17 (34.6%) as underdog|
|0-0 (0%) as road favorite||6-6 (53.8%) at home dog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Total
Cleveland is hitting the over less than 50% of the time (46.7%) while Oklahoma City is right at 50%. On the road though, the Thunder dip down to 46.7% while the Cavs are hitting the over 53.3% of the time at home.
Now, when the line is between 218-221, OKC is hitting the over 66.7% of the time and Cleveland is right at 50%. In just about every stat category this game balances out to about 50/50 against the total. The Thunder are only hitting the over 46.7% of the time on the road against a team that averages more than 102 points allowed per game. Meanwhile, Cleveland is a solid 50% at home against a team with those same averages.
Oklahoma City is going into this game completely healthy. That means the duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Darius Bazley should be set for a good night. SGA hasn’t quite picked up where he left of since returning from injury. In his two games back for the Thunder he averaged 19 points which is well below his season average of 22.3 points per game. Bazley went off for 18 points against Memphis two games ago but only produced a quiet 6 points in Friday’s loss at Milwaukee.
For Cleveland it starts in the middle with veteran big man Andre Drummond. He’s averaging 17.5 points per game this season and will be complimented by guards Collin Sexton (22.8 PPG) and Darius Garland who is dishing out a team-high 5.3 assists per game.
First meeting this season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (-2.5)
This is a unique position for Oklahoma City tonight. They’ve not been a road favorite this season so we really don’t have any trends to go on. In fact, this is only the second time they’ve even been a favorite at all this year.
What we do know is that Cleveland is 10-20 against the spread this season and 7-8 at home. Despite recent losses at Memphis and Milwaukee, Oklahoma City remains a strong road team with an 11-5 record against the spread.
There are two primary factors that tell me the Thunder will cover tonight. First, Cleveland is 7-20 against the spread when playing a team that is allowing more than 102 points per game. What this tells me is that the Cavs can’t run at a high pace. Secondly, Cleveland is just 7-16 against the spread following a day off while Oklahoma City is 14-10 against the spread after an off day. This sets up strongly for an OKC cover.
Why The Game Will Not Hit The Over
I think the point total is on the spot in this game. I think we could see a finish somewhere around 110-105 which would put us just below the total. Neither team is exceptional at hitting the over in this situation and most of the trends are below 50%.
Oklahoma City only hits the over 39.1% of the time following a day off. Cleveland only hits the over 44.8% of the time when the total is greater than 205.
The Thunder are only hitting the over 46.7% of the time on the road and the Cavs are at 46.7% against the over for the entire season. I think it’ll be close (as most over/under picks are) but this one certainly trends towards the under in my opinion.
On The Season
I’ve taken it on the chin recently but I’m nowhere close to giving up. Having way too much fun with this feature.
Against the Spread: 2-4 Last Pick: OKC (+10.5) vs. Milwaukee
Over/Under: 3-3 Last Pick: OKC/Milwaukee Over 231.5
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