We hit two out of three bets again yesterday, which chipped away at our losses for the week, and most importantly we finally hit on the over/under. Now, let this serve as a good warning to why gambling is a risk that may not be worth your time and attention beyond the occasional entertainment value. We’ve hit two out of three bets every day this week except for Tuesday when we only hit one of the three bets. Keep in mind, we’re playing with pretend money at $10 per bet and, despite a winning record this week (7-5, 58%), we’re still negative $4.92 over the last four days.
Today’s random game gives us Houston (54-43) at Oakland (27-72). The Astros are putting Framber Valdez (7-6, 2.76 ERA) on the mound and the A’s are countering with JP Sears (1-6, 3.99 ERA).
Pitchers
Valdez has only logged one win over the last month. That was on June 20th against the Mets. Over the last five games he has allowed 2.8 runs per game, which is right there with his season average, and he’s gone at least six innings in all five outings.
Sears hasn’t produced a win since June 11 but has been pretty solid over the last five games, allowing just 2.2 runs per game, during that stretch, which is considerably lower than his season ERA.
The Lineups
Houston’s Yordan Alvarez is still on the DL which means the Astros won’t have their home run leader (17) in the lineup. They should have Kyle Tucker though. He paces the team in both batting average (.298) and RBIs (64). The Astros have scored 31 runs over the last five games and are 3-2 during that span.
Oakland is powered by Brent Rooker’s 16 home runs and 44 RBI. Esteury Ruiz leads the A’s with a .257 batting average. Oakland is 2-3 over the last five games and has scored just combined runs during that stretch.
The Streaks
Houston goes into tonight’s game having won three of its last four games and two in a row. The Athletics saw their 2-game winning streak come to an end on Thursday night in the series opener with the Astros.
The Odds
Astros -1.5
Astros -230 on the ML
Over/Under 7.5
The Athletics are awful this season but that doesn’t mean they can’t be competitive. Valdez hasn’t been a dominant pitcher for the Astros and Sears is on a pretty decent stretch. This game will ultimately come down to hitting, which is why I ultimately like Houston, but I think Oakland can stay close. Last night was a 2-run final and I think tonight the A’s will keep it to within one run. Give me Oakland with the +1.5.
The ML is just garbage here at -230. That means you would have to bet $23 just to win $10. It’s probably the safest bet with this game but certainly not the best bet.
Our record on the over/under isn’t spectacular but I believe this is the best bet on the board for this game. Even without Alvarez (and Altuve) in the lineup the Astros have strong bats and I’d be shocked in Oakland gets blanked. I really like the over at 7.5!
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