Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
Total: 216
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Rockets |
| 15-9 (62%) | All | 16-9 (64%) |
| 7-5 (58%) at home | Location | 7-5 (58%) on the road |
| 14-9 (60%) as favorite | Status | 5-2 (71%) as underdog or pick |
| 7-5 (58%) as home favorite | Location Status | 3-2 (60%) as road underdog |
| 1-1 (50%) | Head To Head | 1-1 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 11-13 (45%) against the over on the season.
- Houston is 12-12-1 (50%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 6-6 (50%) against the over at home.
- The Rockets are 6-6 (50%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Last Season’s Stats)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 112.7 | 105.9 | 44.0 | 32.7 | 49.4 | 22.5 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 5.6 | W2 | 7-3 |
| OKC | 115.8 | 103.8 | 46.5 | 35.0 | 43.8 | 26.0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.4 | W4 | 8-2 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ousmane Dieng (small fracture in right ring finger) is OUT.
- Alex Ducas (sprained lower back) is OUT.
- Adam Flagler (fractured right fourth metacarpal) is OUT.
- Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
- Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (sprained left knee) is OUT.
- Jaylin Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
Rockets
- Dillon Brooks (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
Series History
The Thunder is 1-1 against the Rockets so far this season (1-0 at home, 0-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-5.5)
Oklahoma City is statistically better than Houston in nearly every category. Stats matter far less than actual matchups, however, which is why I’m taking the Thunder to cover the spread against the Rockets. OKC is the more experienced team and the more talented one. The teams looked pretty evenly matched in the narrow Houston win just a couple of weeks ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has really ramped up his play lately, Isaiah Hartenstein is fitting into OKC’s lineup like a tailored glove, and Jalen Williams is making his case to be a first-time All-Star. Despite Houston’s talented young roster, they’re still a couple of years behind the Thunder, and on a bigger stage like this one, the better team will win out.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (216)
Two of the league’s top defenses going at each other in Vegas sounds like a lower scoring game, but this point total is just too low for me. I don’t see Houston effectively slowing down OKC’s weapons—as long as they choose their shots wisely—and the Rockets aren’t just going to let the Thunder run away with a win, so I’m seeing this one go perhaps well over the listed total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 15-7 | 12-10 | 13-9 |
| Zack | 19-5 | 16-8 | 14-10 |
| Craig | 18-5 | 18-4-1 | 13-10 |