Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-11)
Total: 228.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Pacers |
| 63-37 (63%) | All | 50-48-1 (51%) |
| 37-15 (71%) at home | Location | 26-25 (51%) on the road |
| 61-36 (62%) as favorite | Status | 26-18 (59%) as underdog |
| 37-15 (71%) as home favorite | Location Status | 19-12 (61%) as road underdog |
| 2-1 (66%) | Head To Head | 1-2 (33%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 53-46-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Indiana is 53-45-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 29-23 (55%) against the over at home.
- The Pacers are 27-23-1 (54%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 117.0 | 113.1 | 49.6 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 27.8 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 5.7 | W2 | 7-3 |
| OKC | 116.6 | 106.5 | 46.0 | 33.7 | 44.0 | 24.6 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 5.6 | L1 | 7-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Pacers
- Isaiah Jackson (torn right Achilles tendon) is OUT.
- Jarace Walker (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
Series History
OKC trails Indiana 0-1 in the NBA Finals (0-1 at home, 0-0 on the road). The Thunder went 2-0 against the Pacers in the regular season (1-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-11)
Despite the Pacers turning the ball over 25 times, OKC was unable to convert the opportunities efficiently, resulting in just 11 points. On top of that, the Thunder had one of their worst shooting nights from the field, knocking down just 39.8% of their shots from the floor. OKC has bounced back after every playoff loss thus far, and I expect a lot more from the home team in this one. Jalen Williams should have a big game, and Chet Holmgren should play a lot better. Don’t be surprised when the Thunder cover this spread.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (228.5)
If OKC is to cover the spread like I think they will, they need to do it by forcing Indiana into live-ball turnovers in order to convert them into points. I think that happens, and I also don’t see Indiana shooting lights out from three like they did in Game 1. I’m taking the under on this point total, especially after what we saw in Game 1.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 74-23 | 59-36-1 | 45-52-1 |
| Zack | 80-20 | 65-35 | 51-49 |
| Craig | 77-21 | 67-29-2 | 51-46-1 |