Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
Total: 221.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Pacers |
| 66-38 (63%) | All | 51-51-1 (50%) |
| 27-23 (54%) on the road | Location | 25-24-1 (51%) at home |
| 64-37 (63%) as favorite | Status | 27-21 (56%) as underdog |
| 25-22 (53%) as road favorite | Location Status | 8-7 (53%) as home underdog |
| 5-2 (71%) | Head To Head | 2-5 (28%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 55-48-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
- Indiana is 55-47-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 24-25-1 (49%) against the over on the road.
- The Pacers are 26-24 (52%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 116.4 | 107.0 | 46.0 | 34.4 | 43.9 | 23.5 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 5.6 | W2 | 7-3 |
| IND | 115.5 | 113.5 | 49.0 | 39.2 | 40.1 | 27.0 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 5.8 | L2 | 5-5 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Pacers
- Tyrese Haliburton (strained right calf) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Isaiah Jackson (torn right Achilles tendon) is OUT.
- Jarace Walker (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
Series History
OKC leads Indiana 3-2 in the NBA Finals (2-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-0 against the Pacers in the regular season (1-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-6.5)
OKC has an opportunity to close out the series and win the franchise’s first NBA Championship, and with Tyrese Haliburton questionable to play, that’s enough to think the Thunder should be able to win comfortably. Still, “The cusp of winning is not winning,” as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put it. This team may be young, but they know what needs to be done, and I think they have what it takes to win on the road in a convincing manner, thus covering the spread.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (221.5)
Indiana hasn’t shot particularly well from downtown in this series—just 36.6% overall and 33.9% in the 3 losses—but they’ve still been competitive. Even though I expect OKC to close out the series on a high note, I think the Pacers hit a few more shots playing in front of the home crowd with the game on the line, pushing the point total over the line.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 77-24 | 62-37-1 | 48-53-1 |
| Zack | 83-21 | 68-36 | 52-52 |
| Craig | 80-22 | 70-30-2 | 53-48-1 |