Alright Sooner Nation, gather ’round. We’ve got to talk about something that makes folks a little uncomfortable — Brent Venables and the hot seat.
Now, listen, we all want him off that seat. Nobody’s rooting for the guy to fail. But the reality is, after two losing seasons in three years — something Oklahoma hasn’t seen since the John Blake era — Venables is coaching for his future in 2025.
The Sooners have only had two losing records this century. Both of them belong to Venables. That’s the cold, hard truth. And last year, a 6-7 mark in OU’s first S.E.C. season — while Texas was marching to the playoff — well, that didn’t sit well in Norman.
Venables knew it. That’s why he started pulling the reins in October, firing his offensive coordinator midseason, shifting staff responsibilities, and essentially hitting the reset button while the season was still happening. Oklahoma even hired a third-party consultant to evaluate the program from top to bottom. That’s not normal. That’s survival mode.
And the changes? They’ve been sweeping… Two new coordinators. A pair of defensive assistants. A brand-new front office led by Jim Nagy, the former NFL exec… Even a new trainer with NFL chops.
On top of that, they attacked the transfer portal like their jobs depended on it — because they did. OU landed John Mateer, one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Jadyn Ott, one of the best running backs. They added five new wide receivers, seven new offensive linemen, and retooled the whole thing.
This is not tinkering. This is a full re-model.
Now, let’s be clear about why we’re even here. Venables has shown he can coach defense. The Sooners ranked top 25 on that side of the ball last year, and Connelly’s SP-plus has them projected top 15 again this fall. The defense isn’t the problem. The problem is offense.
OU was flat-out unwatchable on that side last season. 124th in yards-per-play. That’s old school Kansas-level bad. And it wasn’t just the stats. It was the eye test. Two points in the second half at home against Houston. Nine sacks given up to South Carolina in your own stadium. A quarterback carousel that looked more like musical chairs.
Venables admitted it himself: ‘I hired the wrong guy.’ Seth Littrell didn’t work, and the Sooners wasted a season because of it.
So now, it’s Ben Arbuckle time. He’s just 29 years old, already considered one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. His offense at Washington State was explosive — top 10 nationally in points and yards per play. He produced back-to-back elite quarterbacks, and one of them, John Mateer, followed him to Norman. That’s huge.
Mateer threw for almost 4,000 yards, ran for another 700, and scored 44 total touchdowns last year. He knows Arbuckle’s system, he believes in Arbuckle, and he gives this team something it hasn’t had since Baker Mayfield — a quarterback with both juice and swagger.
So what has to happen for Venables to keep his job? The simple answer is: Win. But at Oklahoma, it’s more specific than that.
First — don’t embarrass yourself. Last season, OU wasn’t just bad at times, they were unwatchable. That can’t happen again. You can lose at Ole Miss, you can lose at LSU, but you can’t lose 35 to 9 at home to South Carolina. You can’t start games down three touchdowns in five minutes. Those are the kind of losses that get people fired.
Second — beat somebody. Venables doesn’t have to make the playoff in 2025, but he needs a signature win. The game everyone’s circling? September 6th, against Michigan. That’s your litmus test. Oklahoma walks out of there with a win, and suddenly they’re 5-0 heading into Texas, and the entire narrative around Venables changes overnight.
Third — clear the bar. DraftKings has OU’s win total at 6.5. That’s Vegas telling you they don’t believe in the Sooners. For Venables to keep this job, he has to smash that number. Eight wins? He’s safe. Nine wins? He’s thriving. Even 7-5, if it includes a Michigan or Texas win, buys him breathing room. But 6-6? Another losing season? That’s it. That’s the end.
Because here’s the reality: this is Oklahoma. Bud, Barry, Bob. Three coaches, three legends, 10-win seasons were the standard. Brent doesn’t need to be the fourth name on the T-shirt, but he has to show this program is moving in the right direction.
And for the first time, it feels like he actually has the tools. A real offensive mind in Arbuckle. A real quarterback in Mateer. A defense good enough to win. A front office that looks like an NFL operation. The excuses are gone!
If Venables wins, if he steadies the program, if Oklahoma walks into the Cotton Bowl with momentum — he’s safe. The hot seat cools down. The fan base buys back in.
But if it’s another year of offensive ineptitude, another year of quarterbacks running for their lives, another year of six wins and excuses? Then Joe Castiglione will do what ADs have to do.
So Sooner Nation, that’s where we’re at.
Matt Hofeld is a college football analyst and contributor covering the SEC. Follow him for more Oklahoma and conference-wide analysis throughout the 2025 season.
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