A Leap Up the Ladder — But Don’t Call Oklahoma Football A Destiny Yet

With several upsets around the country, Oklahoma seized its moment. The AP voters elevated OU into the top five, slotting them as the second-ranked SEC team behind only Ole Miss. That kind of leap in one week feels like the payoff for momentum and program prestige. The Sooners began the season at No. 18 in the AP poll, and now—after knocking off Michigan and Auburn—they’ve proven that voters respond to results, not just hype.

But with that rise comes new scrutiny. Last week’s surge into the top-10 was earned by locking down Auburn with nine sacks and showing that OU’s defense can dominate major games. Now that they sit in the top five, the margin for error narrows dramatically. A stumble in the coming weeks will be scrutinized more harshly than ever.

Beyond the bylines, the program also benefited from external chaos. Two top teams—LSU and Georgia—fell hard on Saturday, leaking points and momentum alike. Ole Miss, the only SEC team now ahead of OU in the AP Poll, vaulted itself up by upsetting LSU. Those results helped open space for Oklahoma to move upward even without playing. But being a beneficiary of others’ missteps isn’t the same as creating your own breakthrough. The difference matters.

Now, Oklahoma heads into the next stretch with some significant challenges. At the forefront: quarterback depth. John Mateer, the Heisman favorite after last weekend, and statistical engine of the offense, will miss the Kent State game at a minimum due to surgery on his throwing hand. The staff hasn’t confirmed whether he’ll be available for the upcoming marquee matchups against Texas, South Carolina, and Ole Miss.

So the baton passes to sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. This is more than just a backup drift; it’s a critical audition. Hawkins started four games as a true freshman in 2024, and while he showed flashes, he also struggled with turnovers and consistency — understandable for a first-year starter in a chaotic offense with poor weathering. The difference now is infrastructure: he steps into a system that’s been built to be more suited for him, to go along with months of preparation and coaching support.

Venables has said that Hawkins has matured, “attacked everything since the end of last season … picked up the offense really well … got a lot of really dynamic abilities.” Praise like that sounds measured, but it also signals the staff believes Hawkins is far more ready than he was a year ago. Still, his ability to manage pressure, protect the ball, and maintain tempo will define whether the offense can keep producing at elite levels with him orchestrating.

Parallel to the Hawkins story is Oklahoma’s perennial running game question. Mateer has actually supplied a large share of OU’s rushing output—190 of the team’s 501 rushing yards so far—so losing him will magnify a weakness. Against Auburn, the running game was stalled, and that exposed parts of the offense that can’t be papered over for long. Oklahoma needs one of its running backs — whether Tory Blaylock, Jaydn Ott, or another — to emerge. And more urgently, the offensive line must shake off injuries and find consistency. Center Jake Maikkula and guard Febechi Nwaiwu were limited against Auburn; if they can’t recover fully, Lenient rush lanes won’t materialize when Hawkins is under duress.

On defense, Oklahoma has been quietly elite, even without forcing a turnover yet. They’ve allowed very little damage off miscues, a testament to disciplined scheme execution. But the stakes are rising. The top five ranking now brings a bigger target to the tougher offenses, relentless playmakers, and high-stakes moments that are looming on the schedule. Defensive back Eli Bowen’s potential return could bolster the secondary depth. And as his brother, safety Peyton Bowen, noted: “We’re not forcing anything … play within scheme … don’t get out of our way to try to create these turnovers.” That mindset may serve them well, but it also means the defense must stay consistent, let the offense win games, and be ready to make game-changing plays when turnovers finally arrive.

Next Saturday’s game against Kent State gives Hawkins a manageable launch pad. It’s a chance to ease into rhythm, manage expectations, and let the rest of the offense and defense minimize risk. But after that comes the real test: the Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Texas rose to No. 9 following its bye week. That matchup already had national implications; now with Oklahoma ranked in the top five, it looks like it’ll be a top-10 clash. If Hawkins can guide the offense, protect the edge, and keep OU competitive, it will be a defining moment.

Further on, Ole Miss continues to ascend, following its upset of LSU. And over the next two months, Oklahoma plays Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU. Six of their remaining seven SEC opponents are currently ranked. It’s a stretch that would challenge any program. Coming into it, Oklahoma must show that the climb into the top five was no fluke.

If Hawkins stumbles early, or if the running game remains sputtering, the Sooners risk falling victim to the “great early start, soft October fade” narrative. But if Hawkins manages the game, the defense holds steady, and the line gives him time, this can become more than a season of promise—it can be a statement campaign. The Sooners will either validate that No. 5 spot or become cautionary tale for teams rising too fast.

Oklahoma’s elevation into the top five marks the highest AP ranking under Brent Venables — one place higher than his previous peaks of No. 6 in earlier seasons. It’s not just a notch on a poll; it’s a challenge issued to the rest of the SEC and the country. The Sooners have earned this moment. Now they must defend it.

But recognition alone doesn’t win games. The ascent is breeding expectations, and every misstep will be magnified. The key questions loom: Can Hawkins lead without cracking? Will the running game evolve or continue to drag? Will the defense maintain dominance when turnover opportunities finally arrive? If Oklahoma answers these well, 2025 will be remembered as the season the Sooners didn’t just climb—they arrived.

Until that last game, we’ll watch. We’ll debate. We’ll hope this top-5 ranking doesn’t become a burden but a catalyst. Because if OU makes this climb count—if they prove the rankings, not just bask in them—it may be the turning point for this program’s SEC era.

Matt Hofeld is a college football analyst and contributor covering the SEC. Follow him for more Oklahoma and conference-wide analysis throughout the 2025 season.

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