Kickoff: 2 PM CT
Location: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
Television: TNT/TruTV/HBO Max
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Twitter: Follow @HeartlandPokes for live tweets during the game
The post-Mike Gundy era of Oklahoma State football kicked off last weekend, and while the Cowboys were unable to get a win at home against the Baylor Bears, there was a lot that happened that gave Cowboy fans at least a little bit of optimism. After a close game that was within a single score for the majority of the Bears pulled away late to win 45-27.
While a moral victory doesn’t count for much, it’s hard to say that Cowboy fans aren’t at least a little more optimistic after Saturday’s game due to a lot of progress in several areas. After struggling to run the ball through the first four games of the season, the Cowboys rushed for a team total of 157 yards for a 4.9 yards per carry average, much more than they had up to that point. Quarterback Zane Flores had a decent day throwing the ball, completing 23-of-41 passes for 232 yards, and while he didn’t throw for any touchdowns, he also didn’t throw any interceptions, which has to feel like a win after some of his miscues in previous games.
Defensively, the Cowboys still struggled mightily, giving up big play after big play. A few days after the game, earlier this week, defensive coordinator Todd Grantham was fired, marking the second major coaching change in a week. Clint Bowen is taking over the reins for now, moving up from his position of quality control coach, and he has some experience as a defensive coordinator, having held the position at Kansas University for 5 years (2014-18).
Now the Cowboys travel to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats, who are 3-1 on the season. For the second week in a row, Oklahoma State is a three-touchdown underdog, and the Cowboys are given just a 10.3% chance of winning according to ESPN.com’s Matchup Predictor.
Arizona has not been very good in recent seasons, but they have looked solid so far, picking up wins against Hawaii, Weber State, and Kansas State to start the season before falling 39-14 last weekend in Ames against Iowa State. Quarterback Noah Fifita is a solid passer, throwing for nearly a thousand yards already for 8 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions, and he’s also rushed for 3 touchdowns.
Defensively, the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the conference, holding teams to just 266.5 yards per game, and they are doing it by limiting teams in both the pass and run games. This gives Oklahoma State a good opportunity to see if the offense can keep the momentum rolling from last week.
How the Cowboys Win
Oklahoma State has taken care of the ball the last couple of weeks, and last week, they actually managed to find the end zone a few times. Now it’s time to get some stops. If the Cowboys can keep Arizona from scoring easily—maybe even force a couple turnovers—and keep up the progress initiated last week, then perhaps they could pull off the upset.
How the Wildcats Win
The key for Arizona today is to keep the Cowboys from making momentum-gaining plays. Big plays can energize an underdog on the road, and the Wildcat crowd is going to be hungry for a win after the loss in Ames last week to Iowa State. As long as Arizona plays a decent game on both ends of the field, they should be able to win the game comfortably.
Staff Score Predictions
| Staff | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Caleb | Baylor 35 – Oklahoma State 17 |
| Craig | Arizona 38 – Oklahoma State 20 |
| Matt | Arizona 42 – Oklahoma State 14 |
| Zack | Arizona 41 – Oklahoma State 24 |
An Oklahoma State Win Would…
- Improve Doug Meacham’s record as a head coach to 1-1.
- Improve the Cowboys’ all-time record against Arizona to 6-4 and their record against Arizona in Tucson to 2-4.
- Improve the Cowboys’ record in games played in the state of Arizona to 9-6.
- Give the Cowboys wins in eight of their past 11 games played in the state of Arizona.
- Make the Cowboys 36-24 in their past 60 games overall, dating to 2020.
- Make the Cowboys 99-31 in their past 130 games vs. opponents outside of the AP Top 25, dating to 2010.
Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
- Oklahoma State has gone each of its past two games without turning the ball over. The Cowboys have not had a three-game stretch without a turnover since the 2012-13 seasons. OSU has not had a three-game stretch without an offensive turnover in one season since the first three games of 2004.
- Oklahoma State has converted 5 of its past 7 two-point conversion attempts dating to last season.
- OSU is 14-4 in the past 18 games when winning or tying the turnover battle.
- Dating back to 2008, OSU is 83-12 when winning the turnover battle.
- Dating back to 2005, OSU is 50-6 when not committing a turnover.
- OSU has held 35 of its past 53 Big 12 opponents under their season scoring average entering the game.
- OSU has won 87 of its past 88 games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003. Including games when opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, OSU has won 95 of its past 96.
- OSU has held its opponent to less than a 50% third-down conversion rate in 55 of its past 67 games.
- OSU is 40-20 in its past 60 games decided by fewer than 10 points.
- OSU is 52-9 in its past 61 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.
- OSU has won five of its past seven overtime games.