Three weeks of data have officially broken the preseason models, leaving the Big 12 in a state of beautiful, unpredictable chaos.

The non-conference schedules are wrapping up, a historic conference matchup has already crossed the Atlantic, and the tier lines across this four-time-zone footprint are finally starting to harden.

From BYU asserting its dominance at the top of the mountain to traditional heavyweights fighting off early-season identity crises at the bottom, navigating this league requires throwing out yesterday’s expectations.

And while the top of the conference is beginning to look remarkably stable, the middle of the Big 12 remains anything but predictable.

BYU is unanimous at No. 1.

Texas Tech is unanimous at No. 2.

Utah is unanimous at No. 3.

After that?

Good luck.

Kansas State, West Virginia, Houston, Arizona State and Arizona are all separated by a handful of points in the consensus rankings, and our three ballots offer dramatically different interpretations of how that group should be sorted.

Meanwhile, Colorado has fallen from a promising 2-0 start to No. 15 in the consensus rankings after getting dismantled by Northwestern, while Kansas remains at the bottom.

Heading into Week 4, the Big 12 hierarchy is beginning to take shape—but the middle of this conference remains a weekly demolition derby.

The Consensus Big 12 Power Rankings

Using our standard scoring system—16 points for a first-place vote, 15 for second, all the way down to 1 point for 16th—here’s how the Week 4 consensus rankings shake out:

Rank	Team	Points	Caleb	Matt	Zack
1	BYU	48	1	1	1
2	Texas Tech	45	2	2	2
3	Utah	42	3	3	3
4	Kansas State	35	4	6	6
5	West Virginia	30	5	4	12
6	Houston	27	15	5	4
6	Arizona State	27	7	9	8
8	Arizona	24	14	8	5
9	Oklahoma State	23	12	7	9
10	Cincinnati	22	6	13	10
10	Baylor	22	8	10	11
12	TCU	20	13	11	7
13	UCF	16	9	12	14
14	Iowa State	14	10	14	13
15	Colorado	9	11	15	16
16	Kansas	4	16	16	15

The Individual Rankings

Caleb

1. BYU | BYU has been impressive to start the season and has the conference’s strongest résumé right now.
2. Texas Tech | Texas Tech has a major win over Houston and continues to look like one of the Big 12’s top teams.
3. Utah | Utah has been dominant early, including a shutout of Utah State. The Utes look like one of the conference’s most complete teams.
4. Kansas State
5. West Virginia
6. Cincinnati
7. Arizona State
8. Baylor
9. UCF
10. Iowa State
11. Colorado
12. Oklahoma State
13. TCU
14. Arizona
15. Houston | Houston nearly upset Texas Tech, losing 28–26. They’re still a dangerous team and have shown they can compete with the Big 12’s upper tier.
16. Kansas | Kansas falls to the bottom after losing to Arizona State. The Jayhawks have been competitive but need a conference win to start climbing the rankings.

Matt

1. BYU | Kalani Sitake has this group locked in. They already have a head-to-head conference victory over Arizona and just handled business on the road against Colorado State. With LJ Martin rushing for 176 yards and 3 scores last week, they seem to have the most consistent identity in the league.
2. Texas Tech | They aren’t steamrolling teams like they did during last year’s championship run, but winning close games is the hallmark of a veteran team. Fending off Houston’s furious late-game rally proved their defense can make stops when it matters most.
3. Utah | The Utes have absolutely suffocated early opponents, outscoring them 142–24 over three weeks. The only reason they aren’t higher is the strength of schedule—pitching a shutout against Utah State is nice, but we need to see them do it against a premium Big 12 offense.
4. West Virginia
5. Houston
6. Kansas State
7. Oklahoma State
8. Arizona
9. Arizona State
10. Baylor
11. TCU
12. UCF
13. Cincinnati
14. Iowa State
15. Colorado | A 41–7 blowout loss to Northwestern exposed the exact same flaws that plagued them a year ago. The offensive line struggled significantly to protect Julian Lewis, leaving the Buffaloes’ one-dimensional attack completely neutralized when they can’t establish a run game.
16. Kansas | Landing at 1–2, the Jayhawks are searching for answers. Isaiah Marshall and the offense looked entirely out of sync across the pond, turning the ball over three times and stalling out against Arizona State. Until they fix the self-inflicted mistakes, they anchor the bottom for me.

Zack

1. BYU | The Cougars had another dominant win against a decent Colorado State team, so they remain at the top. BYU gets the week off before beginning conference play against TCU on October 3rd.
2. Texas Tech | The Red Raiders survived a tight one with Houston. There’s not as much separation at the top as many expected, but Tech should still be considered a favorite to make It to the Big 12 Championship.They’ve got an easy matchup with Sam Houston State this weekend.
3. Utah | The Utes dominated Utah State in the rivalry game, and now they open up conference play against Iowa State. The Cyclones have looked surprisingly solid through three games, so this meeting should tell us a lot about both teams.
4. Houston
5. Arizona
6. Kansas State
7. TCU
8. Arizona State
9. Oklahoma State
10. Cincinnati
11. Baylor
12. West Virginia
13. Iowa State
14. UCF
15. Kansas | The Jayhawks performed admirably against Arizona State, but they couldn’t get the job done, and now they’re 1-2 on the season. They get a bye week before hosting Middle Tennessee, which is a good opportunity for a bounce back win.
16. Colorado | A promising 2-0 start to the season has come crumbling down after a blowout loss to Northwestern. Now the Buffs travel to Waco to take on Baylor, so maybe they can rebound and prove they’re not the worst team in the conference.

The Top Three: A Rare Case of Complete Agreement

In a conference built around chaos, the top three couldn’t be clearer.

All three voters have:

1. BYU
2. Texas Tech
3. Utah

That’s as strong a consensus as you’re going to find.

1. BYU Cougars

Caleb:

BYU has been impressive to start the season and has the conference’s strongest résumé right now.

Matt:

Kalani Sitake has this group locked in. They already have a head-to-head conference victory over Arizona and just handled business on the road against Colorado State. With LJ Martin rushing for 176 yards and 3 scores last week, they seem to have the most consistent identity in the league.

Zack:

The Cougars had another dominant win against a decent Colorado State team, so they remain at the top. BYU gets the week off before beginning conference play against TCU on October 3rd.

There’s very little debate to have here.

BYU is the only team receiving first-place votes, giving the Cougars the maximum possible 48 consensus points.

We are emphasizing slightly different things—résumé, consistency and dominance—but all three of us arrive at exactly the same conclusion.

BYU remains the team everyone else is chasing.

2. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Caleb:

Texas Tech has a major win over Houston and continues to look like one of the Big 12’s top teams.

Matt:

They aren’t steamrolling teams like they did during last year’s championship run, but winning close games is the hallmark of a veteran team. Fending off Houston’s furious late-game rally proved their defense can make stops when it matters most.

Zack:

The Red Raiders survived a tight one with Houston. There’s not as much separation at the top as many expected, but Tech should still be considered a favorite to make It to the Big 12 Championship.They’ve got an easy matchup with Sam Houston State this weekend.

Texas Tech is another unanimous ranking.

All three of us have the Red Raiders second.

The interesting part is that all three acknowledge the same issue: Tech isn’t separating itself from opponents quite like it did last season.

But winning close games still counts.

And Texas Tech’s victory over Houston remains an important résumé piece.

3. Utah Utes

Caleb:

Utah has been dominant early, including a shutout of Utah State. The Utes look like one of the conference’s most complete teams.

Matt:

The Utes have absolutely suffocated early opponents, outscoring them 142–24 over three weeks. The only reason they aren’t higher is the strength of schedule—pitching a shutout against Utah State is nice, but we need to see them do it against a premium Big 12 offense.

Zack:

The Utes dominated Utah State in the rivalry game, and now they open up conference play against Iowa State. The Cyclones have looked surprisingly solid through three games, so this meeting should tell us a lot about both teams.

Once again, complete agreement.

Utah is No. 3 across the board.

The Utes now get Iowa State to open conference play, giving us the first opportunity to see whether that impressive statistical dominance translates against a legitimate Big 12 opponent.

The Kansas State Question

Kansas State lands fourth in the consensus rankings with 35 points.

Caleb has the Wildcats fourth, while Matt and Zack both have them sixth.

That’s actually one of the tighter disagreements among the teams outside the top three.

The Wildcats don’t have a voter placing them dramatically higher or lower than the others.

And that matters because Kansas State is essentially the first team occupying the conference’s second tier.

The Biggest Disagreement: West Virginia

If there is one team that exposes how differently our three voters view the Big 12, it’s West Virginia.

Caleb has the Mountaineers fifth.

Matt has them fourth.

Zack has them 12th.

That’s an eight-position spread.

And yet West Virginia still finishes fifth in the consensus rankings.

That’s because two voters view the Mountaineers as a legitimate upper-tier team, while Zack has them much closer to the conference’s middle and lower tiers.

This is precisely the kind of disagreement that makes the weekly power rankings interesting.

Houston: From 15th to the Upper Tier?

Houston might be the biggest story hidden inside the consensus rankings.

Caleb has the Cougars 15th.

Matt has them fifth.

Zack has them fourth.

That’s an 11-position spread.

Think about that.

One voter has Houston essentially at the bottom of the conference.

The other two have them inside the top five.

And the reason is obvious: Texas Tech survived Houston 28-26.

Caleb sees that narrow loss as evidence that Houston is dangerous but still hasn’t earned a higher ranking.

Matt and Zack see the same game and reach a very different conclusion.

If Houston continues to play like it did against Texas Tech, Caleb’s No. 15 ranking is going to become increasingly difficult to defend.

If the Cougars stumble once conference play gets rolling, Matt and Zack will have to answer questions about their aggressive placement.

For now, the consensus puts Houston at 27 points, tied with Arizona State for sixth/seventh depending on the tiebreak.

Arizona: Another Major Split

Arizona is another team with a huge range.

Caleb has the Wildcats 14th.

Matt has them eighth.

Zack has them fifth.

That’s a nine-position difference.

Zack clearly sees Arizona as one of the conference’s most dangerous teams, while Caleb remains skeptical enough to place them near the bottom third.

Matt lands directly between the two.

The result is a consensus ranking of No. 8.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils Still Have Work to Do

Arizona State lands in another interesting position.

Caleb: 7th

Matt: 9th

Zack: 8th

That’s one of the closest three-way spreads on the entire board.

Nobody has the Sun Devils outside the top nine.

Nobody has them inside the top six.

That tells you exactly where the three of us are on Arizona State right now:

Good enough to matter, but not yet proven enough to join the elite.

Oklahoma State and TCU: Two Teams Heading in Opposite Directions on Our Boards

Oklahoma State is ninth in the consensus rankings, but the ballots are all over the place.

Matt has the Cowboys seventh.

Zack has them ninth.

Caleb has them 12th.

TCU is even more interesting.

Zack has the Horned Frogs seventh.

Matt has them 11th.

Caleb has them 13th.

That gives TCU a six-position spread.

The lesson is simple: the Big 12’s middle tier hasn’t been sorted out yet.

There are too many teams with enough talent to move quickly in either direction.

Cincinnati and Baylor: The Middle Gets Crowded

Cincinnati and Baylor are tied at 22 consensus points, but they arrive there in very different ways.

Cincinnati:

• Caleb: 6th
• Matt: 13th
• Zack: 10th

Baylor:

• Caleb: 8th
• Matt: 10th
• Zack: 11th

Baylor has a relatively narrow range.

Cincinnati doesn’t.

Caleb’s sixth-place ranking of Cincinnati is one of the more aggressive placements on the entire board, while Matt has the Bearcats all the way down at 13th.

The Bottom: Colorado and Kansas

There is no mystery at the bottom.

Kansas is 16th for Caleb and Matt and 15th for Zack.

Colorado is 11th for Caleb, 15th for Matt and 16th for Zack.

Those two teams have taken dramatically different paths to the bottom of the conference.

Kansas

Caleb:

Kansas falls to the bottom after losing to Arizona State. The Jayhawks have been competitive but need a conference win to start climbing the rankings.

Matt:

Landing at 1–2, the Jayhawks are searching for answers. Isaiah Marshall and the offense looked entirely out of sync across the pond, turning the ball over three times and stalling out against Arizona State. Until they fix the self-inflicted mistakes, they anchor the bottom for me.

Zack:

The Jayhawks performed admirably against Arizona State, but they couldn’t get the job done, and now they’re 1-2 on the season. They get a bye week before hosting Middle Tennessee, which is a good opportunity for a bounce back win.

All three voters agree Kansas has work to do.

The only disagreement is how close the Jayhawks are to the next tier.

For Caleb and Matt, Kansas is clearly last.

Zack gives them a little more credit, placing them 15th.

Colorado

Matt:

A 41–7 blowout loss to Northwestern exposed the exact same flaws that plagued them a year ago. The offensive line struggled significantly to protect Julian Lewis, leaving the Buffaloes’ one-dimensional attack completely neutralized when they can’t establish a run game.

Zack:

A promising 2-0 start to the season has come crumbling down after a blowout loss to Northwestern. Now the Buffs travel to Waco to take on Baylor, so maybe they can rebound and prove they’re not the worst team in the conference.

Colorado’s consensus position is No. 15, but there is a significant disagreement.

Caleb has the Buffaloes 11th.

Matt has them 15th.

Zack has them 16th.

The Northwestern loss clearly changed the perception of Colorado, but Caleb remains considerably more optimistic about what the Buffaloes can be.

Where We Agree

The strongest agreement is at the very top.

Unanimous

• BYU — No. 1
• Texas Tech — No. 2
• Utah — No. 3

That’s three straight teams with identical rankings from all three voters.

We also have extremely tight agreement on Arizona State:

• Caleb: 7
• Matt: 9
• Zack: 8

And Kansas is almost unanimous at the bottom:

• Caleb: 16
• Matt: 16
• Zack: 15

Where We Were Way Off

The biggest disagreements are substantial.

Houston: 15th to 4th

11-position spread

That’s easily the widest range on the board.

Arizona: 14th to 5th

9-position spread

West Virginia: 12th to 4th

8-position spread

TCU: 13th to 7th

6-position spread

Cincinnati: 13th to 6th

7-position spread

Those numbers tell the story.

The Big 12 has a clear top three.

It has a clear bottom two.

Everything in between remains very much up for debate.

The Week 4 Big 12 Board

For all the chaos in this conference, the top of the mountain is beginning to look remarkably stable.

BYU is No. 1.

Texas Tech is No. 2.

Utah is No. 3.

After that, the conference becomes a collection of questions.

Is Kansas State ready to challenge the top three?

Is West Virginia actually a top-five team?

Is Houston one of the Big 12’s biggest surprises, or did Texas Tech expose the ceiling of the Cougars?

Where does Arizona belong?

Can TCU climb?

Can Colorado recover?

And perhaps most importantly, which of these teams is going to separate itself once conference play starts stacking up?

The Big 12 doesn’t have divisions.

It doesn’t have a safety net.

And it certainly doesn’t have a shortage of teams capable of beating one another.

Three weeks in, we know who sits at the top.

We know who sits at the bottom.

The real fight is everything in between.

And that’s where the Big 12 is about to get really interesting.