We finally pulled off a decent weekend!
Collectively, our crew went 8-4 in Week 10, with everyone pulling off a winning record except for Matt. Caleb produced another perfect 3-0 weekend, Craig and Zack each went 2-1, while Matt struggled to a 1-2 finish.
But, hey, no one was shut out, which means the Cone of Shame is officially shelved for this week.
Caleb is beginning to create some separation at the top of the standings, while Craig and Zack are making a push to climb out of the bottom spot. Matt is still within striking distance, but he’ll need a better weekend if he wants to keep pace.
Week 11 brings us some intriguing matchups, including Tennessee at Texas A&M, Utah at Arizona, and UCLA hosting Illinois. We’ve also got a couple of games where we are in agreement, with Tennessee, Houston, and Utah all receiving multiple votes.
Let’s see if we can keep this momentum rolling.
Tennessee Gets Two Votes Against Texas A&M
Tennessee is getting plenty of love from our crew this weekend.
Caleb and Craig are both backing the Volunteers on the road against Texas A&M. Caleb has Tennessee laying -2.5 points, while Craig is getting the slightly better number at -1.5.
Both believe Tennessee is the more complete football team and have confidence that the Volunteers can handle the challenge of playing at Kyle Field.
Caleb: Tennessee -2.5
Tennessee enters its matchup with Texas A&M looking like the more complete football team, especially defensively. I expect Tennessee to be able to control both sides of the ball.
Craig: Tennessee -1.5
I understand Kyle Field is a tough place to play, but Tennessee has been in worse environments. The Vols are simply the better team here.
Houston Is Another Popular Pick
Houston is also getting support from two members of the crew as the Cougars travel to Colorado.
Matt is laying -7.5 points, while Zack is taking Houston at -9.5. Both believe the Cougars are significantly better than the Buffaloes and should be able to win comfortably.
The reasoning centers on Houston’s discipline and ability to control the game on the ground, especially against a Colorado team that has struggled to stop the run and protect the football.
Matt: Houston -7.5
Houston is the much stronger and more disciplined team, led by an offense that controls the clock by running the ball well and rarely makes costly mistakes. On the other hand, Colorado has struggled all season to protect the football and stop the run, which should give a playoff-hungry Houston squad plenty of easy scoring chances to pull away for a comfortable, multi-score win.
Zack: Houston -9.5
The Cougars and the Buffaloes are at different ends of the Big 12 spectrum. Houston should win this one by a lot, so I don’t see the spread being an issue, even if the game is in Boulder.
Utah Has Two Believers Against Arizona
The third consensus pick of the week also comes from the Big 12, where Utah travels to Arizona.
Craig and Zack are both backing the Utes at -2.5. Neither seems particularly concerned about the Wildcats having home-field advantage.
In fact, Zack thinks the spread might be giving Arizona too much credit.
Craig: Utah -2.5
I doubted Utah a few weeks back and then I’ve been riding with them since. Give me the Utes in a close one on the road.
Zack: Utah -2.5
The Wildcats just barely survived at home against TCU, and now they’re barely an underdog against Utah? Make it make sense. The Utes might win this one by 20.
Individual Picks
Caleb
UCLA (-10) vs. Illinois
UCLA enters Friday night’s matchup against Illinois with a major advantage on both sides of the football. The Bruins’ explosive rushing attack, led by Wayne Knight, combined with a defense that consistently creates turnovers, gives them the ability to control the game from start to finish. If UCLA establishes the run early and forces Illinois into passing situations, the Bruins have a great opportunity to earn a convincing victory.
Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M
Tennessee enters its matchup with Texas A&M looking like the more complete football team, especially defensively. I expect Tennessee to be able to control both sides of the ball.
Boise State (-14.5) vs. Oregon State
Boise State enters its matchup against Oregon State as the more complete team, riding an eight-game winning streak and sitting undefeated in conference play. The Broncos’ physical rushing attack, led by Dylan Riley, has been extremely productive, while Oregon State faces a significant challenge with starting quarterback Braden Atkinson listed as doubtful.
Craig
Tennessee (-1.5) at Texas A&M
I understand Kyle Field is a tough place to play, but Tennessee has been in worse environments. The Vols are simply the better team here.
Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Florida
Kentucky gets an opportunity to bounce back against Florida, and I think they will make a statement. Give me the Wildcats in this one.
Utah (-2.5) at Arizona
I doubted Utah a few weeks back, and then I’ve been riding with them since. Give me the Utes in a close one on the road.
Matt
Illinois (+10.5) at UCLA
Even though UCLA is undefeated, they are missing their starting quarterback and several key offensive players due to injury, making it tough for them to run up the score against an Illinois defense that has been playing great lately. In a game expected to be low-scoring, getting that extra half-point cushion above a touchdown and a field goal gives Illinois a great chance to keep things close until the very end.
Houston (-7.5) at Colorado
Houston is the much stronger and more disciplined team, led by an offense that controls the clock by running the ball well and rarely makes costly mistakes. On the other hand, Colorado has struggled all season to protect the football and stop the run, which should give a playoff-hungry Houston squad plenty of easy scoring chances to pull away for a comfortable, multi-score win.
Duke (+13.5) at Miami
Duke’s coaches spent all last year working with Miami’s star quarterback and top receiver before they transferred, meaning Duke knows all of their habits and favorite plays. With Miami also missing a couple of key injured receivers, Duke’s defense should be able to slow the game down, force Miami to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, and keep the final score close even if Miami still wins the game.
Zack
Houston (-9.5) at Colorado
The Cougars and the Buffaloes are at different ends of the Big 12 spectrum. Houston should win this one by a lot, so I don’t see the spread being an issue, even if the game is in Boulder.
BYU (-7.5) vs. Baylor
BYU hasn’t looked great recently, but I’m a big believer that Baylor is a fraudulent 6-3 team. I’m taking the Cougars at home in convincing fashion over the Bears.
Utah (-2.5) at Arizona
The Wildcats just barely survived at home against TCU, and now they’re barely an underdog against Utah? Make it make sense. The Utes might win this one by 20.
The Week 11 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After a couple of rough weekends, we finally have something to build on.
Our 8-4 collective record in Week 10 was a welcome change, and Caleb led the way with a perfect 3-0 performance. Craig and Zack both finished 2-1, while Matt’s 1-2 record was enough to keep him away from the the Cone of Shame.
Here’s where everyone stands heading into Week 11:
| Rank | Writer | Week 10 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb | 3-0 | 17-16 |
| 2 | Craig | 2-1 | 16-17 |
| T3 | Matt | 1-2 | 15-18 |
| T3 | Zack | 2-1 | 15-18 |
Caleb continues to hold the top spot, while Matt, Craig, and Zack are all lined up just behind him.
The race for second place is wide open, and another strong weekend from any of those three could change the standings in a hurry.
Week 11 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | UCLA -10 | Tennessee -2.5 | Boise State -14.5 |
| Craig | Tennessee -1.5 | Kentucky -3.5 | Utah -2.5 |
| Matt | Illinois +10.5 | Houston -7.5 | Duke +13.5 |
| Zack | Houston -9.5 | BYU -7.5 | Utah -2.5 |
Week 11 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Pick: Tennessee
Caleb and Craig are both backing the Volunteers against Texas A&M.
Both writers believe Tennessee is the better team, and neither is particularly worried about the challenge of playing at Kyle Field.
The Volunteers have an opportunity to make a statement on the road, and our crew believes they’ll get the job done.
Another Consensus: Houston
Matt and Zack are both taking Houston against Colorado.
The Cougars have looked like the more complete team, and both believe their ability to run the football and control the game will be too much for the Buffaloes.
The only difference is the number. Matt needs Houston to win by eight or more, while Zack needs a victory by at least 10.
Utah Gets the Road Support
Craig and Zack are both backing Utah at Arizona.
Craig expects a close road victory, while Zack thinks the Utes could win by as many as 20.
Arizona has shown it can compete, but both writers believe Utah is the better team and should be able to prove it on Saturday.
Game of the Week: UCLA vs. Illinois
Caleb and Matt are on opposite sides of Friday night’s matchup.
Caleb likes UCLA’s rushing attack and defense to create problems for Illinois, while Matt believes the Bruins’ injuries could make it difficult to cover a double-digit spread.
This is an interesting matchup because both have a reasonable path to cashing their picks. If UCLA controls the line of scrimmage, Caleb could be celebrating another win. If Illinois keeps things close, Matt gets a much-needed boost.
The Bounce-Back Watch
Caleb is looking to make it three perfect weekends in a month after another 3-0 performance. He’s backing UCLA, Tennessee, and Boise State to keep the momentum rolling.
Matt needs to do a little better after his 1-2 weekend, and he’s taking three underdogs or favorites with some interesting matchup angles.
Craig and Zack are both looking to build on their 2-1 performances. Craig has two road favorites and a home favorite, while Zack is trusting Houston, BYU, and Utah.
Let’s Keep It Rolling
Week 10 was a step in the right direction.
After some ugly weekends, an 8-4 finish is exactly what we needed. Caleb continues to set the pace, and Craig and Zack are starting to put together the kind of performances that can get them back into the race.
The best part? Nobody is wearing the Cone of Shame this week.
Week 11 gives us plenty of opportunities to keep the momentum going. Tennessee and Houston have multiple believers, Utah is getting some road support, and UCLA’s matchup with Illinois has our crew split.
We’re not ready to declare ourselves experts just yet, but at least we’re heading into the weekend with a little confidence.
Week 11 is here. Let’s keep the winning weekends coming.