Disclaimer: The real job had me pressed today so this will be a bit of an abbreviated version of the breakdown.
Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Oklahoma City (-1)
Spurs/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|16-10-1 (61.5%)||17-14 (54.8%)|
|9-2-1 (81.8%) on the road||5-9 (35.7%) at home|
|10-5 (66.7%) as underdog or pick||2-0 (100%) as favorite|
|6-1 (85.7%) as road dog||1-0 (100%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Spurs/Thunder Trends Against The Total
Both teams are hitting the over below 50% of the time this season. San Antonio is going over the total 48.1% of the time and Oklahoma City just 46.7% of the time. However, on the road the Spurs hit the over 58.3% of the time and the Thunder go over 50% of the time at home.
S.A. – Lonnie Walker (24 pts in first meeting)
OKC – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (20 pts in first meeting)
Game 1 | San Antonio 112 – OKC 102
Why The Spurs Will Cover (+1)
This game should be close! However, history seems to be on the Spurs side here after a 10-point win in game one this season. What Oklahoma City does have at its advantage is that the Thunder are a perfect 2-0 this season as a favorite. However, San Antonio is 9-2-1 this season against the spread on the road and 6-1 as a road underdog. Combine that with the Thunder being just 5-9 against the spread at home and I think you’ve got the recipe for an upset tonight as minor as it may be.
Why The Game Will Not Hit The Over
There’s no doubt in my mind that this game is heading towards the under tonight. Again, we can talk about history if you’d like. The first meeting between these two teams didn’t hit the over and that final score wouldn’t hit the over on tonight’s total either.
San Antonio is 13-14 against the over this season and Oklahoma City is 14-16-1. We’ve got a half a point on the total tonight so there won’t be a push. It either will or will not hit. Here’s why I’m saying that it won’t.
Both teams are below 50% against the over when the game total is greater than 205 points. When the total is 216-219 San Antonio only hits the over 25% of the time. After a day off Oklahoma City hits the over just 37.5% of the time. This game is literally screaming for me to pick the under.
On The Season
Apparently I’m a lot better at the O/U than I am against the spread.
Against the Spread: 3-5 Last Pick: OKC (+6.5) vs. Miami
Over/Under: 5-3 Last Pick: OKC/Miami Under 212
Follow us on Twitter: @SportsHeartland