Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Denver (-7)
Nuggets/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|13-19 (40.6%)||19-14 (57.6%)|
|7-9 (43.8%) on the road||7-9 (43.8%) at home|
|10-12 (45.5%) as a favorite||17-14 (54.8%) as an underdog|
|6-5 (54.5%) as road favorite||6-9 (40%) as a home dog|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Nuggets/Thunder Trends Against The Total
There’s a weird split between Denver and Oklahoma City when comparing over/under stats. In nearly every category the Nuggets are above 50% against the over and Oklahoma City is either at 50% or below.
For example, Denver is hitting the over in 64.5% of its games while Oklahoma City is only hitting the over 46.9% of the time. The Nuggets hit the over 68.8% of the time when the total is greater than 205, yet the Thunder are only hitting the over 50% of the time against the same line.
Nikola Jokic leads Denver in all three major offensive categories with 26.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game. That’s why it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s been the constant for the Nuggets in the season series with Oklahoma City. In the first meeting Jokic scored 27 and then posted 22 in the second matchup.
For Oklahoma City it has been a pair of 20-point scorers keeping them competitive against the Nuggets. In the first meeting between the two Lu Dort produced 20 points and then Justin Jackson duplicated the point production in the second meeting.
Game 1 | Denver 119 – OKC 101
Game 2 | Denver 97 – OKC 95
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+7)
Oklahoma City is 19-14 against the spread this season and 17-14 against it as an underdog. The scary stat here is that the Thunder are just 2-4 against the spread in the second night of a back-to-back but Denver isn’t performing much better after a day off (11-17).
OKC is 1-1 against the spread when facing Denver this season and despite being 6-9 as a home underdog, the Thunder have beaten the spread at home two games in a row now. It’s the momentum, partnered with Denver’s 40.6% against the spread this season, that leads me to believe the Thunder keeps rolling.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over
As I mentioned above, there are some crazy splits between Denver and Oklahoma City when it comes to the over/under. I have been sticking with the under recently when it comes to the Thunder and the fact that in two games this season they haven’t hit the over would indicate that the under is still the way to go. However, I’m jumping ship and going with the over and here’s why. Denver hits the over 68.8% of the time when playing on the road against a team that allows more than 102 points per game. Oklahoma City hits the over 50% of the time when playing at home under the same circumstances. Now, when the Thunder are playing the second night of a back-to-back they hit the over 83.3% of the time. This game looks to be heading towards the over!
On The Season
We hit the point spread and the under last night against the Hawks. That was a much needed win for my spread picks.
Against the Spread: 4-6 Last Pick: OKC (+5) vs. Atlanta
Over/Under: 6-3 Last Pick: Atlanta/OKC Under (228)
Follow us on Twitter: @SportsHeartland