This is where things get interesting and kind of fun. Oklahoma City has hit the over two times in a row and Utah has cleared it three consecutive times coming into tonight’s game.
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Atlanta is outscoring opponents by an average of 115.6-104.1 at home this season which is a margin that’s right at the 11.5 margin for tonight. OKC is riding a hot hand against the spread right now, covering in eight of the last ten games, and that’s a good reason to stick with them again tonight.
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The safest bet in the NBA right now is the under on a game that Oklahoma City is playing in. An even safer bet could be a game featuring the Thunder and the Bucks. Both teams have been awful against the over this season. Milwaukee is 0-6 against the over at home and Oklahoma City is 0-6 against the over on the road. That may be all you need to know about these teams and the trends for tonight.
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This is the first time Oklahoma City has been favored to win a game this season so there really are no trends to measure this moment by. That said, the Thunder, despite the two-game losing streak, are a much better team at home than they are on the road and Houston is giving up an average of 116 points per game on the road to its opponents.
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Once again this comes down to simple semantics. Just like the Golden State Warriors set last week, OKC is coming off a blowout loss and has to take the court again, on the road, against the same team. There’s nothing here to lead someone to believe the Thunder can cover. OKC could have Dort back in the lineup tonight but they are without point guard Theo Maledon. Is that enough to make up 17 points from Sunday’s performance? I don’t believe that it is.
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I’m really torn here because based on trends this is a game where Oklahoma City should cover. I’m scared by the 4.5 line though because that means the Thunder will be in a position to win and you can’t really deny that they don’t really want to do that. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the last thing they want to do is mess around and accidentally win this game.
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How can you not pick the Suns after the performance Oklahoma City put out there Saturday night. I get it that they’ll have access to more players than they had against the Pacers but there’s still the issue of Phoenix pursuing the top seed in the West (only a half game back) and the Thunder pursuing a lottery pick. That is the most difficult factor when determining how competitive OKC is going to be.
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I don’t look for this to be a blowout for the Pacers but I am concerned about OKC’s depth with Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski on the bench beside Mike Muscala. This could easily be a situation where the Thunder remain extremely competitive for three and a half quarters before fading away late.
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Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT Location: TD Garden (Boston, Massachusetts) Spread: Celtics (-10.5) Total: 215.5 Thunder/Celtics Trends Against The Spread Thunder Celtics All 28-33 (45%) 29-31-1 (48%) Location 18-13 (58%)…
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While we don’t know for sure who is available for the 76ers yet we do know that Dort in out for the Thunder tonight. If Philly plays its typical lineup then this could get ugly. If they rest players then it should be pretty interesting. Regardless, we all know that OKC doesn’t want to even sniff a win right now.
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