Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Hornets (-5.5)
Hornets/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|27-21-1 (56%)||25-25 (50%)|
|14-13 (51%) on the road||10-15 (40%) at home|
|8-5 (61%) as a favorite||23-25 (47%) as an underdog or pick|
|4-1 (80%) as a road favorite||9-15 (37%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (100%)|
Hornets/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 24-25-1 against the over this season.
Charlotte is 23-26 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 60% of the time at home.
The Hornets are hitting the over 55% of the time on the road.
Charlotte is led in scoring by shooting guard Terry Rozier who is averaging 20.4 points per game. Specifically against Oklahoma City, Rozier is averaging 19 points per game on 33% shooting from the floor. Power forward P.J. Washington is pacing the Hornets with 6.5 rebounds per game and point guard LaMelo Ball is dishing out 6.1 assists per game.
Your guess is as good as mine in regards to who will lead OKC tonight. Aleksej Pokusevski led the team against Detroit with 19 points and 4 rebounds. Prior to that, it was Kenrich Williams coming off the bench to lead the Thunder with 18 points against Portland.
Game 1 | Oklahoma City 109 – Charlotte 107
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+5.5)
All of the trends against the spread were already going towards Charlotte but even if they weren’t it just isn’t possible to have confidence in OKC right now. The Hornets are covering the spread 56% of the time and the Thunder are down to 50%. On the road Charlotte are is up to 51% against the spread and Oklahoma City is down to 40% at home.
As a road favorite, the Hornets are 4-1 and the Thunder are 9-15 as a home underdog.
Like I said, the trends would indicate that Charlotte is a good pick for tonight. However, when you consider that OKC has lost the last three games by an average of 36.3 points then the Hornets pretty much become a lock.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (213.5)
The true challenge for tonight is in the over/under. With the total being fairly low it’s tempting to jump on it. Especially when you consider that OKC is giving up an average of 135 points per game over the last three. That said, the Thunder is somewhat balancing it out with an average of just 98.6 points per game over the last three.
When the line is between 211.5 and 214.5 Oklahoma City is hitting the over just 33% of the time. Following a day off Charlotte hits the over 46% of the time and the Thunder 44% of the time.
In the previous meeting this season the game did not hit the over.
On The Season
I totally bought in on the Thunder having a chance against a struggling Detroit team two nights ago. It just goes to show how incredibly difficult it is to get a pulse on how this team will perform against the spread and total right now.
Against the Spread: 8-15 Last Pick: OKC (+3 ) vs. Detroit
Over/Under: 13-10 Last Pick: OKC/Detroit under (213.5)
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