Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, Indiana)
Spread: Pacers (-10.5)
Thunder/Pacers Trends Against The Spread
|27-31 (46%)||23-34 (40%)|
|17-12 (58%) on the road||7-19 (26%) at home|
|25-31 (44%) as an underdog or pick||12-18 (40%) as a favorite|
|16-12 (57%) as a road dog||5-12 (29%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Pacers Trends Against The Total
OKC is 27-30-1 against the over this season.
Indiana is 33-23-1 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 32% of the time on the road.
The Pacers are hitting the over 50% of the time at home.
Domantas Sabonis (back) and Myles Turner (toe) are out tonight so that leaves Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon as the primary scoring options for the Pacers. I’m picking LeVert as the guy to keep a close eye on though. He’s got the more favorable matchup and has scored in double figures over the last 12 games where he’s averaging 20.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.7 steals across that span.
I’ve been high on Thunder center Moses Brown recently (despite two stinkers in a row now) and I like him again tonight. The Pacers are already without Myles Turner and Goga Bitadze is questionable with a left ankle sprain. This looks like a situation where points in the paint could come regularly for OKC.
First meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+10.5)
I’m picking the Pacers on principle here. Everything about this game says to pick OKC and those points but I just can’t because of the tank factor. OKC is only covering the spread 44% of the time as an underdog and just 31% of the time against teams that have won 45-55% of its games. Following an off day the Thunder are only covering the spread 47% of the time.
I’m using those stats to back up my pick despite the knowledge that the Pacers are only covering the spread 26% of the time at home this season.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (230.5)
That’s a lot of points! Especially for a team that only hits the over 32% of the time on the road against a team that hits it 50% of the time at home. When the total is between 229 and 232 the Thunder are only hitting the over 25% of the time this season. After a day off they are hitting the over 41% of the time.
Considering the guys that are confirmed out for the Pacers and the fact that OKC doesn’t want to win, the under is the way to go with this one.
On The Season
Previously I had stated that I’m not picking OKC to cover the spread again this season. Last night I picked them to cover at +5.5 against a Toronto team that was resting its top four scorers. The Thunder lost by 6. I’m not picking OKC to cover the spread again this season!
Against the Spread: 12-18 Last Pick: Washington (-10.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 18-12 Last Pick: Washington/OKC under (229.5)
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