Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Smoothie King Center (New Orleans)
Spread: Pelicans (-4)
Thunder/Pelicans Trends Against The Spread
|5-4 (55%)||4-7 (36%)|
|2-3 (40%) on the road||2-2 (66%) at home|
|5-4 (55%) as an underdog||0-0 (0%) as a favorite|
|2-3 as a road underdog (55%)||0-0 (0%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Spurs/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is hitting the over just 22% of the time this season.
The Pelicans are hitting the over 27% of the time this season.
The Thunder are 0-5 against the over on the road.
The Pelicans are 2-2 against the over at home.
New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas is posting a team-high 19.5 points per game. He’s also shooting a team best 50.9 percent from the floor and pulling down an average of 13.9 boards, giving him an average of a double-double each night. In Monday’s 108-92 loss to Dallas Valanciunas recorded 22 points, shot 62.5% from the floor, and grabbed 11 boards.
New Orleans point guard Devonte’ Graham is dishing out a team best 5.6 assists per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still leading Oklahoma City and has the Thunder coming off of back-to-back wins for the first time this season. With an average of 22.4 points each night SGA is connecting on 44.4% of his shots from the floor. In OKC’s win over San Antonio on Sunday evening he was limited to just 14 points on a 31.3% shooting effort. Regardless, the Thunder got the win and Gilgeous-Alexander was the catalysts.
Rookie Josh Giddy saw his assist average drop just a little in Sunday’s win but still tops the Thunder with an average of 5.9 dimes each night.
First meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+4)
Oklahoma City truly is finding its rhythm after back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Spurs but the truth remains that this team hasn’t been good on the road. There’s hope after the win in Los Angeles but now the question is can the be consistent? That’s what makes tonight’s game against a vulnerable Pelicans squad in New Orleans.
The good news for OKC is that New Orleans is only covering the spread 36% of the time this season. This will be the first time the Pelicans will take the floor as a favorite on the season so there’s some uncertainty there but the momentum here clearly is on the Thunder bench after covering in the last two road games.
OKC is coving the spread 50% of the time after a day off this season, while the Pelicans are covering just 25% of the time following a day off. The smart money is on the Thunder tonight.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (209.5)
Let me preface this by saying I’m a bit worried about the point total tonight because I think it’s spot on and that half a point could be what makes or breaks the over/under depending on which side you’re on. That said, I’ll stand with the under here for two simple reasons.
First, the Thunder have failed to hit the over in five attempts on the road this season. New Orleans is 2-2 against the over in home games but the Pelicans are 0-1 against the over when the point total is between 207.5 and 210.5 points.
Secondly, when the point total is greater than 205 the Thunder are just 2-7 against the over. In addition, when playing after an off day Oklahoma City is hitting the over just 12% of the time.
I think it’s going to be really close on the point total but the trends clearly indicate that under is where you want to be here.
On The Season
Follow us on Twitter: @SportsHeartland