Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (OKC)
Spread: Kings (-4)
Kings/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|6-6 (50%)||6-4 (60%)|
|4-2 (66%) on the road||3-1 (75%) at home|
|3-1 (75%) as a favorite||6-4 (60%) as an underdog or pick|
|1-0 as a road favorite (100%)||3-1 (75%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Kings Trends Against The Total
OKC is hitting the over just 20% of the time this season.
The Kings are hitting the over 41% of the time this season.
The Thunder are 2-2 against the over at home.
Sacramento is 4-2 against the over on the road.
Small forward Harrison Barnes is pacing Sacramento with an average of 21.4 points per game. In Wednesday’s loss at San Antonio he was held to just 9 points and the Kings offense still produced 117 points. That was thanks in part to point guard De’Arron Fox who produced a team-high 37 points. Fox also leads the Kings with an average of 6.2 assists per game.
Center Richaun Holmes is connecting on 66% of his shots from the floor which is the best percentage on the team.
Don’t look now but Shai Gilgeour-Alexander has the Thunder riding a three-game winning streak. Averaging team-bests 22.6 points per game and 43.6 shooting from the floor SGA has led the Thunder out of the Northwest Division basement and a game ahead of Minnesota. In Wednesday’s win at New Orleans Gilgeous-Alexander produced 24 points and 5 assists.
Rookie Josh Giddy is producing a team-high 6.2 assists per game.
First meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+4)
Tonight’s matchup is between two teams heading in two different directions. Oklahoma comes looking for its fourth win in a row and Sacramento is looking to snap a three-game losing streak. The Kings are more potent on offense than the Thunder are but Sacramento also has more defensive flaws, providing the opportunity for OKC to take advantage. I think this game will be tight throughout which bodes well for the home underdog.
The Thunder are coving the spread 55% when playing after a day off and they’re 3-1 against the spread as a home underdog. Look for that to grow to 4-1 after tonight.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (219)
This is a pretty high over for a game that involves the 29th ranked offensive team in the NBA. Tonight’s over/under is clearly on the shoulders of Sacramento though. The Kings come to OKC averaging 110.9 points per game while also giving up an average of 111.5 points per game to their opponents. Meanwhile, the Thunder are scoring at a pace of 105.8 points when playing in Oklahoma City. I think there’s a legitimate chance that this game hits the highest point total of the year for the Thunder. That’s why the line is so high and that’s why I believe the game will exceed it.
On The Season
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