Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (OKC)
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)
Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|15-18 (45%) Overall||20-11 (64%) Overall|
|6-12 (33%) on the road||10-6 (62%) at home|
|3-3 (50%) as a favorite||19-10 (65%) as an underdog or pick|
|1-2 (33%) as a road favorite||9-5 (64%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-2 (0%)||2-0 (100%)|
Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 38% of the time this season.
- The Pelicans are hitting the over 42% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 6-10 against the over at home.
- New Orleans is 7-11 against the over on the road.
The Thunder and Pelicans are very familiar with each other at this point. Tonight’s matchup will be the third contest between the two team and you can bet that Brandon Ingram will have OKC’s full attention on the defensive end of the floor. Through the previous two meetings this season, Ingram is averaging 34 points per outing against the Thunder while shooting 50% from the floor.
The Pelicans are going to be without center Jonas Valanciunas who is averaging 18.6 points and 12 rebounds per game this season and shooting a team best 52.6% from the floor. In the first two games against OKC he averaged 22 points and shot 56.7% from the floor.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a 33-point night the last time OKC and New Orleans played and he’s averaging 28.5 points per game against the Pelicans this season.
Lu Dort is averaging 27 points per game against New Orleans and is shooting a team best 41.9% from the floor this season. Rookie Josh Giddy is dishing out an average of 6 assists per game on the year.
Game 1 | OKC 108 – NO 100
Game 2 | NO 113 – OKC 110
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+1.5)
I’ve got to be honest with you, I think the wrong team is favored to night. The Thunder and Pelicans split the first two game they’ve played this season but I think missing Valanciunas is going to be huge for New Orleans tonight. That’s a lot of points that the Pelicans will have to make up and this is a team that was already struggling against the spread on the road.
New Orleans covers just 33% of the time on the road and they are 1-2 as a road underdog this season. Compare that with Oklahoma City’s 62% coverage rate at home and it makes the decision a little easier. The Thunder have also covered in each of the previous two games against New Orleans and are 17-9 (65%) against the spread following a day off.
Why the Game Won’t Hit the Over (205.5)
I think the Valanciunas factor comes into play here as well. OKC and New Orleans and 1-1 against the over in the previous two games this season but the trends and personnel struggles have the under looking good tonight. New Orleans only hits the over 38% of the time on the road, and Oklahoma City hits it just 37% of the time at home, and that’s before you factor in Valanciunas being absent.
When you factor in the trends following an off day then the under looks even more enticing tonight. New Orleans only hits the over 44% of the time following an off day and that percentage drops even lower for the Thunder who are hitting the over just 30% of the time following a day off.
On the Season
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