Tip-Off: 8 PM CT
Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)
Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)
Thunder/Nuggets Trends Against The Spread
|37-21-3 (63%)||29-32 (47%)|
|21-10 (67%) on the road||11-16 (40%) at home|
|36-20-3 (64%) as underdog or pick||16-19 (45%) as favorite|
|21-10 (67%) as road underdog||9-12 (42%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|2-0 (100%)||0-2 (0%)|
Thunder/Nuggets Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 45% of the time this season.
- The Nuggets are hitting the over 55% of the time this season.
- The Thunder is 13-18 against the over on the road
- Denver is 16-11 against the over at home.
The Thunder and the Nuggets have played twice so far this season, splitting the two matchups played in Oklahoma City.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+14.5)
The Thunder crumbled late against the Sacramento Kings at home on Monday night, and a single-digit deficit early in the fourth quarter ended in a 21-point loss. Regardless, OKC has actually covered the spread more efficiently on the road than at home, while Denver has struggled to cover regardless of where they play. This spread is as much as the Nuggets have been favored all season long, and I just don’t think they can keep the Thunder from making this into a single-digit game late.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (225.5)
For whatever reason, the tide has shifted in the NBA, and since the return from the All-Star Break, scoring has increased, and the over seems to be hitting far more often. The Thunder is not a high-scoring team at all, but they are averaging 115.2 points in their last five games, which is 14 points more than their average on the season. Meanwhile, the Nuggets fall in the middle for both scoring and points allowed, so I think hitting the over is possible yet again tonight.
On the Season
Follow us on Twitter: @SportsHeartland, @ZacharyLowNBA, and @craighofeld