Oklahoma City travels to Phoenix tonight as a 7-point underdog and my first thought is that the Thunder have lost just two games by more than eight points since the calendar turned to 2023 and they’re playing against at team that just traded off Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson, to acquire Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren. With Durant being on the shelf until at least March 1 that puts the Suns as a team that’ll be a but undermanned. Well…it at least appears that way.
Chris Paul is beginning to show his mortality a little. He’s averaging a career-low 13.7 points per game and shooting 42.6% from the field. That said, he’s averaging 9.1 assists per game over the course of the season and 11.8 per game over the last five. The reason why this stat is important is because the Thunder are going to have their hands full with Deandre Ayton. Phoenix’s big man is averaging 18.7 points and 10.1 rebounds on the season but has been a beneficiary of Paul’s increased assists over the last five games, boosting his average during that span to 25.4 points per game. The Thunder have allowed 51.6 points per game in the paint this season and rank 26th in Rebounding Percentage (48.7%).
For OKC the formula to success is very similar. Thunder All-Star point guard is averaging a career-high 30.8 points per game and shooting 50.8% from the field but he’ll be facing a Suns lineup that is pretty salty across the board when it comes to defensive intensity. Phoenix is Top 5 in the league in scoring defense (111.3) and is holding point guards to just 23.85 points and 7.42 assists per game.
I think this sets up to be a good night for Josh Giddey. With SGA being the focal point of the Phoenix defensive set, Giddey should be able to have opportunity after opportunity to shoot. He’s shooting 48.5% from the floor this season and has shot 50% or better in six of OKC’s eight games this month. The Suns are allowing opposing shooting guards to score nearly 25 points (24.92) per game this season and that makes Giddey a valuable weapon tonight. I’m all for SGA scoring when the opportunity is there but what I really would like to see is the ole drive and kick out to the shooter. That’s where the Thunder’s best opportunity rests for pulling the upset.
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