Tip-Off: 9 PM CT
Location: Footprint Center (Phoenix, Arizona)
Spread: Suns (-7)
Trends Against The Spread
|37-21 (63%)||32-28 (53%)|
|19-10 (65%) on road||17-13 (56%) at home|
|28-12 (70%) as underdog or pick||20-17 (54%) as favorite|
|19-6 (76%) as road underdog||14-9 (60%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Trends Against The Total
- OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
- The Suns have hit the over 45% of the time this season.
- The Thunder is 14-15 against the over on the road this season.
- Phoenix is 11-17-2 against the over at home this season.
The Thunder went 1-3 against the Suns last season (1-1 at home, 0-2 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+6.5)
Confession time: I initially took Phoenix to cover. After some more thought, though, I can’t help but think that the Thunder manages to keep this one close. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not play a perfect game last night, but he carried the load for OKC to have a chance to win. He didn’t get a lot of help from his team, and in the end, I think that hurt them as SGA probably felt like he had to shoulder the load by himself when he likely needed to trust his teammates more. I think Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey specifically flip the script on how they played last night and have a much better game to make this a closer one than the spread suggests.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (230.5)
Last night OKC shot about as poorly as they have at any point this season. Hitting on just 40.2% of their shots from their field, including an abysmal 21.6% from three, the Thunder just couldn’t get much going aside from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Call it All-Star Break rust or whatever you want, I anticipate a better night tonight. More shots will fall, more points will be scored, and because I think it’ll be a close game, I’m taking the over on the point total.
On the Season