We suffered our second losing day of the week yesterday which will result in a negative balance for the week. Despite producing winning records in four of the six days so far (56% winning rate), we are negative $-10.57 on the week, making $10 bets (in imaginary money) on the random games that we select.
Today brings us around to the Pittsbrugh Pirates (43-55) for the second time this week. It’s a shot at redemption because in Tuesday Pittsburgh/Cleveland game we went 1-2 with our picks, giving us our first losing day of the week. Now, if we hit this game correctly it’ll give us the chance to end in the positive. The Pirates are playing in Los Angeles against the Angels (50-49) and will be throwing Mitch Keller (9-5, 3.73 ERA) against LA’s Tyler Anderson (4-2, 5.17 ERA).
The Pitchers
Not only is this our second look at Pittsburgh this week, it’s our second look at Keller. On Tuesday he was rung up for eight earned runs against the Guardians, in just six innings. On the season Keller has a 3.73 ERA but over the last five games he’s allowing an average of 3.6 earned runs, per contest, which puts him slightly under his average. The Pirates have give up 34 runs over the last five games.
LA’s Tyler Anderson has won just one time over his last five outings. That said, he’s allowing just an average of 1.8 earned runs over that stretch, which is significantly lower than his 5.17 ERA for the season. The problem for Anderson is that he hasn’t gone very deep into his starts. Over the last five appearances he’s only gone six innings one time, and two of his starts have been less than five innings. The Angels have surrendered 15 runs over the last five games.
The Lineups
Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen continue to dominate Pittsburgh’s lineup. Suwinski leads the team in home runs (20) and RBI (51), while McCutchen paces the Pirates with a .266 batting average. For five batters in Pittsburgh’s lineup, this will be their first time to face Anderson. Meanwhile, four Pirates have faced him multiple times, with three of them recording multiple hits. McCutchen is 0-2 in his career vs. Anderson with both appearances ending in a strikeout.
For the second time this week we’re featuring a team who’s top offensive stats are owned by just one man. LA’s Shohei Ohtani leads the team in home runs (35), batting average (.302), and RBIs (76). There are five batters in the LA lineup who have faced Keller before, including Ohtani who is 0-3 against the Pittsburgh righty. Four Angel batters will be facing Anderson for the first time.
The Streaks
The Pirates have won two of their last three games and have split the series with the Angels at one game each. LA’s loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday snapped a 4-game winning streak.
The Odds
Angels -1.5
Angels -115 on the ML
O/U 9.5
These two have split the series for the first two games with each team earning a 3-run win. I think it’s probably time for a close game. I like Pittsburgh at +1.5 because I think there’s a chance that they could actually win it outright.
Part of what I said about the point spread reflects on the money line where the Angels are just -115. That’s not a lot of juice there and shows that this game could go either way. That said, the Angles had a good streak going into Saturday’s game, and they are the home team, so playing them on the ML at -115 is the best bet option for this game.
The over/under is the second best best for this game. I could easily see it going to an eight run total but, obviously, to beat 9.5 it would have to go to ten runs. That could happen, especially when you look at the last five games each of these teams have played, but I’m thinking it’ll go under this afternoon.
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