MLB Best Bet For July 30, 2023 | Mariners vs. Diamondbacks

I wasn’t in a position where I could make any picks for yesterday but we went 3-0 again on Friday, giving us a 14-1 record for the week. Hopefully we can end on a good note with today’s look at the Mariners (53-51) vs. Diamondbacks (56.49).

The Pitchers

Seattle’s Luis Castillo (6-7, 3.02 ERA) hasn’t produced a win since July 7th but he’s still been incredibly productive. Over his last five games, he’s allowed an average of just 2.4 runs per game and has struck out 34 total batters. In his last start (July 24) he went seven innings, striking out nine and allowing two earned runs, in a 4-3 loss to the Twins.

Merrill Kelly (9-4, 3.12 ERA) has been solid for Arizona this season. Over his last five games he’s collected two wins while racking up 26 strikeouts and allowing just 2.6 earned runs per game. On July 25 he tossed six innings against Saint Louis, allowing just one earned run and striking out five, in a win.

The Lineups

Seattle’s offense is led by the three-headed monster of Julio Rodriguez (17 home runs), J.P. Crawford (.261 batting average), and Eugenio Suarez (63 RBI). The Mariners have scored 28 runs over the last five games. Four batters in the Mariners’ lineup have recorded at least one hit against Merrill Kelly, and four will be facing him for the first time tonight.

Christian Walker is pacing the Diamondbacks with 22 home runs and 68 RBI, and Ketel Marte has a team-best .296 batting average. Arizona has scored 21 runs over the last five games.

The Streaks

Seattle’s loss to Arizona on Saturday snapped a three-game winning streak. The 4-3 win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Diamondbacks.

The Odds


ML Even (-110)

O/U 9

This game is a pick’em with even odds at -110. We also have the same odds on the moneyline (-110) but we’re getting +100 on the over/under. It’s a bit dicey because I think the point total is pretty spot on. That said, at those odds you’re getting a big return if you get it right. I’m taking Seattle to win (pick’em & ML) and the under on this one.

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