Last week wasn’t great. We finished just above .500 with our picks which, unfortunately, isn’t enough to put us in the positive with our imaginary bets, but it also isn’t enough to break the bank either. Were back at it again with a new week and some familiar faces as we look at Atlanta (70-39) vs. Pittsburgh (50-61). We’ve featured both teams multiple times over the last month, which gives us a little familiarity and confidence heading into the week with a clean slate.
|July 31 – August 6||11-10||$-2.86|
Spencer Strider (12-3, 3.61 ERA) has only won twice in his last five starts despite producing double-digit strikeouts in his last four of those appearances. He’s only allowing 2.4 earned runs in his last five starts which is more than a full run less than his season average. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts.
Strider’s opponent is Osvaldo Bido (2-2, 5.18 ERA) has also won twice over his last five games and his earned run average is at a super respectful 1.8 runs per game. The problem is longevity. He hasn’t made in more than five innings since June 24 and in his last appearances the longest he’s gone is four innings.
Matt Olson has blasted 39 home runs, and knocked in 97 RBI for the Braves, while Ronald Acuna Jr. has a .343 batting average. Atlanta has scored 35 total runs over the last five games.
Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds continue to dominate Pittsburgh’s lineup. Suwinski leads the team in home runs (21) and RBI (53), while Reynolds paces the Pirates with a .267 batting average. The Pirates have crossed home plate 18 times over the last five games.
Atlanta comes to Pittsburgh having lost two games in a row, while the Pirates have won two of their last three games.
Atlanta -290 on the moneyline
I think Atlanta is clearly the winner in this game, but -290 on the moneyline is pretty terrible. Getting Pittsburgh to cover the 1.5 runs on the spread is our best bet with the odds we’re getting there. I’m also going to start the week by picking the under. It was a bad choice for me last week, but I’m down for giving it another shot.