MLB Best Bet For August 8, 2023 | Astros vs. Orioles

Monday wasn’t a great start to the week. We went 1-2 on our picks for the Braves and Pirates but the good news is that the one we did hit was at +150 so it minimized our total losses to just -$5.00. Hopefully we can recoup that, and then some with Houston (64-49) and Baltimore (70-42) this evening.

The Pitchers

Houston’s Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA) has collected wins in two of his last three starts. He’s allowed an average of 3.4 earned runs over his last five starts, but also had 9-inning shutout performance against Cleveland in his last trip to the mound.

Valdez will be facing Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09 ERA) who hasn’t collected a win since May 9th (Tampa Bay). Rodriguez has also allowed an average of 3.4 runs per game over his last five but has been on a shorter hook. He’s only exceeded six innings once in his last fourteen appearances. I would expect the Orioles to make a call to the bullpen before the Astros do tonight.

The Lineups

The Astros are led by Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez leads the team in home runs (21) while Tucker paces Houston in batting average (.295) and RBI (77). The Astros have scored 23 runs over the last five games. No Houston batter, in the lineup, has faced Rodriguez before.

Baltimore is powered by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Santander leads the Orioles in home runs (20) and RBI (63) while Hays leads the team in batting average (.287). Four players in Baltimore’s lineup have recorded multiple hits against Valdez, including Santander who has taken him deep. The Orioles have scored 26 runs over the last five games.

The Streaks

The Astros come into the game having won three of their last five, while Baltimore has won four in a row.

The Odds

Houston -1.5

Houston -125 on the moneyline

O/U 8.5

I feel like I always say this but, I think this will be close. My biggest concern here is the over/under at 8.5 runs. I think this sets up to be between 7 and 9 runs so we’re probably taking the biggest risk on the under. Give me Baltimore at +1.5 as the home team and Houston on the moneyline. We’re getting -125 on the moneyline which isn’t fantastic but it’s also not terrible either. We’ll take that as our best bet.

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