Next week we’re going to be in game preview mode! The Sooners are just eleven days away from kicking off the 2023 football season against Arkansas State. That means it’s officially prediction time! Here are five predictions for the Sooners this fall. Feel free to agree, or disagree, in the comments section below.
1. Oklahoma Exceeds The Win Total At 9.5
According to Bet MGM, the Sooners have a win total placed at 9.5 for the 2023 season. I’m predicting the over on this for three reasons. 1) I think the defense is going to be vastly improved (See Below). 2) The team hasn’t just added depth in 2023, they’ve added quality depth. This is only the second season for Brent Venables, but, for the first time, he’s going to have #2 guys across the board who are “starter” quality. 3) I’m never going to tell you that things were perfect with this coaching staff in 2022 but they also had the odds stacked against them when you consider player personnel and coaching changes and then the injury bug. Even at that, they lost five games by a touchdown or less in 2022. Those are the types of games that I’m expecting them to win in 2023.
2. Sooners Will Take A Huge Step Forward On Defense
To be fair, it won’t take much for Oklahoma’s defense to improve in 2023. Last fall the Sooners ranked 122nd (out of 131 teams) in defense. They allowed an average of 461 yards (5.75 yards per play) to opponents, and the only team in the Big 12 that played worse on the defensive side of the ball was Kansas.
Brent Venables and Ted Roof went to the transfer portal to pull out Da’Jon Terry (Tennessee), Konnor Near (Ferris State), Rondell Bothroyd (Wake Forest), Davon Sears (Texas State), Reggie Pearson Jr. (Texas Tech), Trace Ford (Oklahoma State), Dasan McCullough (Indiana), and Jacob Lacey (Notre Dame) from the transfer portal. Some of these guys are going to be starters, some are going to be rotation players, and some are going to add much needed depth to the Sooner defense.
When you couple the new crop of transfers, and incoming freshmen, with players like Danny Stutsman, Jaren Kanak, and several others who have star potential and are a year deeper into the new system, it’s not crazy to think that Top 50 should be the floor for this defense in 2023.
3. Gavin Sawchuk Leads The Team In Total Yards
The college football world was introduced to Gavin Sawchuck at the Cheez-It Bowl when he ran for 100 yards and a score, at a pace of 6.7 yards per carry, against Florida State. With the departure of Eric Gray to the NFL (NY Giants), Oklahoma fans got a glimpse of the future with Sawchuck and Jobantae Barnes sharing the backfield in the bowl game. Both ran for over 100 yards against the Seminoles, and both show a ton of potential, but Sawchuck in most likely to be the one two duplicate what Gray provided to this team because of his breakaway speed and his ability to be an additional pass catcher out of the backfield. He only caught one pass, for eight yards, in the bowl game but I would look for that to be more regular feature in the Sooner attack this fall.
4. The Sooners Will Sweep The Postseason Conference Awards (Offensive/Defensive MVP, Coach)
It’s easy to get down on a team that was 6-7 a year ago, but there’s a lot of talent on this roster. They faced nearly the “perfect storm” of obstacles before and during the season and yet they still managed to have the Big 12’s Offensive Newcomer of the Year with Dillon Gabriel. I’m not going as far as to predict a College Football Playoff appearance for Brent Venables in Year Two but this should be a year where Oklahoma wins 10-plus games. In doing so, Gabriel will be in the running for Offensive Player of the Year. He’s already the most experienced, and accomplished, quarterback the conference has to offer heading into the season and, if he stays healthy, he should be near, or at the top, of the conference quarterback statistics.
I’ve already stated that I believe the defense is going to undergo a massive improvement in 2023, and it’ll be because of what like Trace Ford, Danny Stutsman, Jaren Kanak, and Reggie Pearson Jr. bring to the table. All of these guys should be in the running for all-conference awards and don’t be shocked if Stutsman isn’t your Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at season’s end.
Of course, if the Sooners improve from a six-win season in 2022 to a ten-plus win season in 2023, and compete for the conference title, then Brent Venable becomes a prime candidate. One of the obstacles is going to be if Venables will get the votes he deserves due to Oklahoma leaving for the S.E.C. next year.
5. Oklahoma & Texas Will Play For The Big 12 Championship
Speaking of leaving for the S.E.C., either Oklahoma or Texas will be taking the Big 12 championship with them. I think this sets up to possibly be one of the greatest years for this rivalry, in football, due to the fact that they’re heading to the S.E.C. and they both should be the top two teams in the Big 12. Texas is being picked by some as a College Football Playoff contender but I don’t believe there is much, if any, separation between the two programs. Remember those Vegas odds we talked about earlier? The win total for Oklahoma is set at 9.5, but guess what? So is Texas! That means Vegas doesn’t see a lot of separation between the two either.
Texas has the highest Big 12 championship odds at +100 and Oklahoma is second at +325. The next closest team is Kansas State at +500.
2023 Big 12 Game Totals
- Texas: 9.5
- Oklahoma: 9.5
- Kansas State: 8
- Texas Tech: 7.5
- TCU: 7.5
- Baylor: 7
- UCF: 7
- Oklahoma State: 6.5
- Kansas: 6
- BYU: 5.5
- Iowa State: 5
- Cincinnati: 5
- West Virginia: 4.5
- Houston: 4.5
2023 Big 12 Championship Odds
- Texas: +100
- Oklahoma: +325
- Kansas State: +500
- Texas Tech: +1100
- TCU: +2000
- Baylor: +2000
- UCF: +2500
- Oklahoma State: +4000
- Kansas: +4000
- Iowa State: +5000
- BYU: +8000
- Cincinnati: +10000
- West Virginia: +20000
- Houston: +20000
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