Thunder Against the Spread | OKC and Minnesota Meet on NYE for What Should Be a Defensive Slugfest

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 216

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Timberwolves
20-12 (62%)	All	13-18 (41%)
10-5 (66%) at home	Location	9-7 (56%) on the road
19-12 (61%) as favorite	Status	3-1 (75%) as underdog or pick
10-5 (66%) as home favorite	Location Status	3-1 (75%) as road underdog
0-0 (0%)	Head To Head	0-0 (0%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 14-18 (43%) against the over on the season.
• Minnesota is 15-16 (48%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 8-7 (53%) against the over at home.
• The Timberwolves are 7-9 (43%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Last Season’s Stats)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
MIN	109.3	107.2	45.8	37.2	43.2	25.1	15.6	8.6	4.7	W3	6-4
OKC	115.4	103.3	46.6	34.5	44.2	25.8	11.7	11.8	6.2	W11	10-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (strained left hip) is OUT.
• Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Adam Flagler (G League —two-way) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (sprained left knee) is OUT.

Timberwolves

• Jaylen Clark (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Rob Dillingham (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
• Jesse Edwards (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Luka Garza (sprained left ankle) is OUT.
• Daishen Nix (sprained right ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.

Series History

The Thunder went 2-2 against the Timberwolves last season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-7.5)

OKC has surpassed preseason expectations at this point by getting off to the best start in Thunder history. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been less than stellar as the Timberwolves have hovered around .500 for pretty much the entire season. OKC is better than they were last year, and Minnesota is probably worse, but none of that matters too much when you have competitors like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards going head-to-head. I’m taking the Thunder to win at home on NYE, but I do think Minny keeps it closer than the 7.5-point spread.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (216)

This point total is about as low as it gets in the NBA, but the Thunder and the Timberwolves have been on one side of the three lowest-scoring games in the NBA so far this season and 7 of the 20 lowest-scoring games. The reason for that is largely due to the defensive level of both teams, and if recent history tells us anything, it’s that this is going to be another defensive slugfest. 3 of the 4 meetings between OKC and Minnesota last season combined for 209 points or fewer, and I’m thinking we’re in for another night that features more defense than offense.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	21-9	16-13-1	13-17
Zack	26-6	23-9	17-15
Craig	25-6	22-6-2	16-15