Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
Total: 220.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Timberwolves |
| 62-36 (63%) | All | 48-47-1 (50%) |
| 36-14 (72%) at home | Location | 25-23 (52%) at home |
| 60-35 (63%) as favorite | Status | 16-10 (61%) as underdog |
| 36-14 (72%) as home favorite | Location Status | 11-8 (57%) as road underdog |
| 3-5 (37%) | Head To Head | 5-3 (63%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 53-44-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Minnesota is 53-43 (55%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 29-21 (58%) against the over at home.
- The Timberwolves are 22-26 (45%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110.1 | 105.1 | 46.5 | 35.8 | 42.4 | 24.8 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 4.6 | L1 | 6-4 |
| OKC | 116.6 | 107.1 | 46.0 | 33.2 | 44.2 | 25.3 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 5.4 | W1 | 7-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Timberwolves
- NONE
Series History
OKC leads Minnesota 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-8.5)
This could certainly be a game that the Timberwolves win, sending the series back to Minnesota, but I expect the Thunder to close out strong in front of the home crowd. On the cusp of just the second NBA Finals appearance in franchise history and coming off a fantastic performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, don’t be surprised if the Thunder wins this one by double digits.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (220.5)
If this game goes down to the wire, then it will almost certainly go over the point total. Because I’m expecting a convincing win by the Thunder, I’m thinking it will be predicated on defense, thus staying just a tick under this line.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 73-22 | 59-34-1 | 44-51-1 |
| Zack | 79-19 | 64-34 | 50-48 |
| Craig | 76-20 | 65-29-2 | 49-46-1 |