Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to Closeout Western Conference Finals as Heavy Home Favorites Against Minnesota

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

Total: 220.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Timberwolves
62-36 (63%)	All	48-47-1 (50%)
36-14 (72%) at home	Location	25-23 (52%) at home
60-35 (63%) as favorite	Status	16-10 (61%) as underdog
36-14 (72%) as home favorite	Location Status	11-8 (57%) as road underdog
3-5 (37%)	Head To Head	5-3 (63%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 53-44-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
• Minnesota is 53-43 (55%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 29-21 (58%) against the over at home.
• The Timberwolves are 22-26 (45%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
MIN	110.1	105.1	46.5	35.8	42.4	24.8	15.3	7.3	4.6	L1	6-4
OKC	116.6	107.1	46.0	33.2	44.2	25.3	11.5	10.5	5.4	W1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Timberwolves

• NONE

Series History

OKC leads Minnesota 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-8.5)

This could certainly be a game that the Timberwolves win, sending the series back to Minnesota, but I expect the Thunder to close out strong in front of the home crowd. On the cusp of just the second NBA Finals appearance in franchise history and coming off a fantastic performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, don’t be surprised if the Thunder wins this one by double digits.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (220.5)

If this game goes down to the wire, then it will almost certainly go over the point total. Because I’m expecting a convincing win by the Thunder, I’m thinking it will be predicated on defense, thus staying just a tick under this line.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	73-22	59-34-1	44-51-1
Zack	79-19	64-34	50-48
Craig	76-20	65-29-2	49-46-1