Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
Total: 226.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Timberwolves |
| 10-8 (55%) | All | 6-11 (35%) |
| 5-3 (62%) at home | Location | 3-6 (33%) on the road |
| 10-8 (55%) as favorite | Status | 0-3 (0%) as underdog |
| 5-3 (62%) as home favorite | Location Status | 0-1 (0%) as road underdog |
| 0-0 (0%) | Head To Head | 0-0 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 9-9 (50%) against the over on the season.
- Minnesota is 8-9 (47%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 4-4 (50%) against the over at home.
- The Timberwolves are 5-4 (55%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 119.6 | 114.2 | 48.6 | 37.4 | 44.2 | 25.7 | 15.4 | 9.4 | 5.3 | L2 | 6-4 |
| OKC | 122.6 | 105.7 | 48.8 | 36.1 | 45.5 | 26.6 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 5.6 | W9 | 9-1 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Brooks Barnhizer (G League — two-way) is PROBABLE.
- Branden Carlson (G League — two-way) is PROBABLE.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Aaron Wiggins (strained left adductor) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (right wrist surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Kenrich Williams (left knee surgical recovery) is OUT.
Timberwolves
- Enrique Freeman (face mask) is AVAILABLE.
- Rocco Zikarsky (G League — two-way) is OUT.
Series History
OKC went 2-2 against Minnesota in the 2024-25 regular season (1-1at home, 1-1 on the road), and the Thunder defeated the Timberwolves 5-1 in the 2025 Western Conference Finals (3-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-8.5)
Before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (illness) was even listed as questionable on the injury report, I expected this to be a close game. Minnesota has lost two straight games via late-game collapses, and they need a solid performance to get back on track. While I still think OKC wins, if SGA is out, it could be a lot more difficult. Add to it that these teams have built up a bit of a rivalry recently, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one was decided in the final minutes. Oh, and one more thing: this game has heavy implications for Group A in the NBA Cup.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (226.5)
While both OKC and Minnesota have top-10 offenses, they also have top-10 defenses. I’m expecting OKC to win this game based on their defensive tenacity more than their ability to win a shootout. The Thunder don’t want to rely on knocking down shots to win this one, so I’m taking the under on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 16-2 | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Zack | 17-1 | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Craig | 17-1 | 8-10 | 5-13 |
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