It’s back.
College football is finally returning, which means the writers at Heartland Sports are once again putting their reputations—and probably a little bit of dignity—on the line by attempting to pick games against the spread.
Last season, Zack took home the championship after posting the best overall record among our writers. He spent the offseason enjoying the glory, reminding everyone who would listen that he knew what he was doing and, presumably, avoiding any questions about how many of those picks were actually educated guesses.
Unfortunately for Zack, last season doesn’t count anymore.
It’s a clean slate.
And with the 2026 college football season getting underway, all four Heartland Sports writers have submitted their first three ATS selections of the year.
The goal is simple: pick three games against the spread each week, accumulate wins throughout the season and see who is still standing at the end.
The reality is probably a little more complicated.
We’re going to pretend we know what we’re doing.
Let’s get started.
The Game Everyone Wants to Talk About: USC vs. San Jose State
If there is one game that immediately stands out among our Week 0 selections, it’s San Jose State at USC.
All four of us have this game on our cards.
The disagreement?
We’re not exactly seeing the game the same way.
Caleb and Zack are both backing USC to cover the enormous 38.5-point spread, while Craig and Matt are taking the points with San Jose State.
So, naturally, this is the game we’re going to be watching most closely.
Caleb: USC -38.5
Caleb isn’t overthinking this one. He sees a USC team that should be significantly more talented than San Jose State and believes the Trojans can turn that talent gap into a massive victory.
“USC looks to start their season off hot with a big win. San Jose St was not a good team at all last year at 3-9 and with a lot of new players I simply dont see how they can keep this game close at all against a talented USC team.”
It’s a straightforward argument: USC has the talent, San Jose State struggled last season and the Trojans should be motivated to make an early statement.
Craig: San Jose State +39.5
Craig isn’t arguing that San Jose State is going to win.
He’s arguing that 40 points is a ridiculous amount to give anybody.
“The Trojans are going to win this game handedly. However, 40 points is a lot. I think San Jose State covers this spread.”
And that’s the fundamental argument for taking the underdog in games like this. USC can dominate the game from start to finish and still fail to cover if San Jose State finds enough offense late.
Zack: USC -38.5
The defending Friday Locks champion is siding with Caleb on this one.
Zack believes USC’s defense should take a significant step forward with Gary Patterson now in charge, and he expects that improvement to show up immediately.
“Lincoln Riley has been pretty underwhelming leading the Trojans since his first season. Once again, USC enters this season ranked with high expectations, and even though the Spartans have a reputation of a solid passing game, the Trojan defense should see some immediate improvement with Gary Patterson in town as the new defensive coordinator. I like USC to barely cover in a blowout.”
That’s an interesting distinction.
Zack isn’t necessarily predicting a 50-point USC victory. He’s simply saying that he believes the Trojans can do enough to get across the enormous number.
Matt: San Jose State +38.5
Matt is joining Craig on the underdog side.
His reasoning is simple: USC can win big without winning by 39 points.
“USC should win this game comfortably, but 38.5 points is simply too many to lay in a season opener. Give me San Jose State to keep it within the number.”
And there we have it.
Two writers on USC. Two writers on San Jose State.
Someone is going to look really smart.
Someone else is going to look well… maybe the opposite.
That’s basically the point of this exercise.
TCU vs. North Carolina: Another Divided Room
Our second most popular game is North Carolina at TCU, where Caleb and Craig are backing the Horned Frogs while Zack is taking the Tar Heels and the points.
The spread has moved around depending on the sportsbook, but our guys are generally looking at a number in the neighborhood of TCU -8.5 to -9.5.
Caleb: TCU -9.5
Caleb’s concern with North Carolina begins up front.
“North Carolina is still in the early stages of a rebuild, especially at O-line. NC is leaning heavly on guys making the jump from FCS and I’m not sure if this o-line and the rest of this team can match up with TCU.”
For Caleb, this is ultimately a matchup problem. If North Carolina can’t hold up along the offensive line, TCU could control the game and make the number irrelevant.
Craig: TCU -8.5
Craig isn’t expecting a particularly positive beginning to the season for Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels.
“Bill Belichick didn’t have the best first season with the Tar Heels. Unfortunately, I don’t think this one will start off any better. Give me the Horned Frogs by a couple of scores at home.”
But then there’s Zack.
Zack: North Carolina +9.5
He’s going the other direction.
“Bill Belichick kicks off his second season as the Tarheels’ head coach with a key opening matchup against TCU in Dublin, Ireland, and North Carolina isn’t expected to be much better than last season. Still, I think they keep this one to single digits as the Horned Frogs have some questions surrounding their offense. This is going to be a low-scoring game, which I think will favor UNC.”
So while Caleb and Craig are betting on TCU’s advantages, Zack is betting on the number.
That’s an important distinction in an ATS competition.
Virginia vs. NC State: Two Of Us Like the Cavaliers
The third game to attract multiple Heartland Sports selections is NC State at Virginia.
Craig and Zack are both backing the Cavaliers, who are laying four points.
Craig: Virginia -4
Craig calls this one one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend.
“This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the weekend in my opinion. I like Virginia at home here.”
It’s not a complicated argument. Craig believes home-field advantage will be enough to push Virginia across the four-point number.
Zack: Virginia -4
Zack agrees.
“The Cavaliers are fresh off an 11-win season, and while they might not be as good this year, I think they open up with a nice win at home against the Wolfpack. Don’t be surprised if this is a double-digit game in Virginia’s favor.”
The Lone Wolves: Caleb’s Memphis Pick and Matt’s Stanford/NM State Plays
While USC, TCU and Virginia are getting most of the attention, there are three additional selections that only one Heartland Sports writer is willing to put on the line.
Caleb is taking Memphis +4.5 against UNLV, and his reasoning centers around the Rebels’ decision to use two quarterbacks.
“Heading into this game UNLV has said they plan on playing both QBs instead of naming a starter. I have yet to see where this plan has worked out for anyone, and I dont see it working out well for UNLV either.”
It’s an interesting situational handicap and gives Caleb one of the more unique underdog selections on the board.
Matt, meanwhile, is going significantly farther down the underdog rabbit hole.
He’s taking Stanford -3.5 against Hawaii, believing the Cardinal can win comfortably despite playing on the road.
He’s also taking New Mexico State +31.5 at Florida State, making that the second largest spread selected by any of our crew.
That pick represents the ultimate ATS philosophy: Florida State may win, but does it win by more than four touchdowns?
That’s the question Matt is asking.
Week 0 Picks: The Heartland Sports Scorecard
Here’s how the board looks heading into the opening weekend:
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | TCU -9.5 | USC -38.5 | Memphis +4.5 |
| Craig | San Jose State +39.5 | Virginia -4 | TCU -8.5 |
| Matt | San Jose State +38.5 | Stanford -3.5 | New Mexico State +31.5 |
| Zack | North Carolina +9.5 | USC -38.5 | Virginia -4 |
And there are already a few things worth watching.
Most Popular Game: USC vs. San Jose State
Three of four writers selected this matchup, with Caleb and Zack backing USC and Craig and Matt taking San Jose State.
Most Popular Side: Virginia
Both Craig and Zack are taking Virginia -4 against NC State.
Most Popular Favorite: TCU
Caleb and Craig both believe TCU can cover against North Carolina.
Biggest Spread: USC/San Jose State 38.5
Caleb and Zack have USC covering, while Matt and Craig are going with San Jose State getting a ton of points.
Smallest Spread: Virginia -4
Craig and Zack are both trusting Virginia to cover the smallest number selected by any Heartland Sports writer.
Underdog Watch
Craig, Matt and Zack are all taking at least one underdog, while Caleb is the only writer whose three selections are all favorites or a team getting points in a relatively short number.