It didn’t take long for us to come crashing back down to earth.
After a solid Week 0, the Heartland Sports writers were reminded last weekend that picking college football games against the spread is significantly harder than it looks.
Only one of us managed a winning weekend.
Matt went 2-1, while Caleb, Craig and Zack all finished 1-2.
That means Matt remains in the early lead, but we’re only two weekends into this thing. There is still plenty of time for everyone involved to make up ground—or completely embarrass themselves.
The rules remain simple.
Three games.
Top 25 teams gainst the spread.
Every week.
Keep winning and you climb the standings.
Keep losing and eventually you start questioning whether you should even be picking games in the first place.
Week 2 gives us plenty of opportunities to make good decisions, bad decisions and decisions we’ll probably regret by halftime.
And two games have clearly caught the attention of the Heartland Sports staff.
Let’s get started.
The Games Everyone Is Talking About: Oklahoma at Michigan and Oregon at Oklahoma State
Apparently, three writers weren’t enough to settle on just one game this week.
Two matchups appear on three of the four cards:
- No. 11 Oklahoma -5.5 at Michigan
- No. 6 Oregon at Oklahoma State
The difference is that the Oklahoma pick comes with complete agreement.
Caleb, Craig and Matt are all taking the Sooners.
No hesitation.
No disagreement.
All three are laying Oklahoma -5.5 in Ann Arbor.
Meanwhile, Oregon is also a popular selection, with all four of us backing the Ducks. The only question there is exactly how many points they’re willing to lay.
Before we get to the rest of the cards, let’s start in Ann Arbor.
Oklahoma at Michigan: Three Writers Are Riding with the Sooners
This is the clear consensus game of the week.
Three of us have Oklahoma at Michigan on our cards, and all three see the matchup the same way.
Michigan survived Western Michigan in Week 1, but the Wolverines didn’t exactly inspire confidence. The offense struggled to consistently move the football, particularly along the offensive line.
Now comes a much different challenge.
Oklahoma heads to Ann Arbor with an aggressive defense and a team that looked dominant in its season-opening win over UTEP.
Michigan has talent. Nobody is arguing otherwise.
But three of us believe Oklahoma is simply the better football team right now.
Caleb: Oklahoma -5.5
“Michigan wasn’t really able to move the ball much against Western Michigan. While I do expect them to play better this week, I just don’t think it will be enough to cover 5.5 points.”
Craig: Oklahoma -5.5
“On paper Oklahoma is simply the better team here. That being said, Michigan has a talented group of guys. I do think they’re much better than what they showed in Week One. However, with Oklahoma improving everywhere offensively, I’m giving them the edge in this one.”
Matt: Oklahoma -5.5
“Michigan struggled significantly in the trenches against Western Michigan. Oklahoma’s aggressive defensive front should create major problems, and teams often make their biggest jump from Week 1 to Week 2. Trust the Sooners to cover on the road.”
Three writers.
One number.
One side.
Oklahoma -5.5.
That doesn’t guarantee anything, of course.
If we’ve learned anything during the first two weeks of this competition, it’s that agreement among Heartland Sports writers should probably make everyone more nervous, not less.
Oregon at Oklahoma State: The Ducks Are Also Popular
The other game attracting plenty of attention is Oregon’s trip to Stillwater.
All four of us are all taking the Ducks.
We all agree that Oklahoma State’s Week 1 performance against Tulsa did not inspire much confidence.
The Cowboys managed just 10 points, and now they welcome an Oregon team looking to respond after a closer-than-expected opener against Boise State.
Caleb: Oregon -23.5
“Oklahoma State just looked awful against Tulsa a week ago, and this Oregon team is coming in trying to show the college football world that last week’s close game isn’t who this team is. I expect Oregon to come out and blow this game wide open.”
Craig: Oregon -22
“Oklahoma State couldn’t score more than 10 points against Tulsa. This is a bloodbath waiting to happen in Stillwater. Give me the Ducks by a lot.”
Matt: Oregon -22
Oregon had a closer-than-expected opener against Boise State, but Oklahoma State looked completely lost against Tulsa. Matt expects Dante Moore and the Ducks’ offense to find another level against a Cowboys defense that could be in for a long afternoon.
Zack: Oregon -21.5
“Despite the loss to Tulsa, I’m not convinced the Cowboys are quite as bad as last season. Still, Oregon is really good, even if they did struggle in their opener against Boise State. For Oklahoma State’s sake, hopefully the final score isn’t as bad as last season, but this should still be a hefty blowout in favor of the Ducks. As a Cowboy fan, I’d love to be wrong on this one.”
There’s a fairly wide range between Oregon -21.5 and Oregon -23.5, but all three writers are expecting essentially the same thing.
A Ducks blowout.
Matt
Matt is the one of us entering Week 2 with a winning record for the season, so naturally, there is absolutely no pressure.
None at all.
His card features one popular favorite, one popular road favorite and the biggest underdog selected by anyone this week.
Oklahoma (-5.5) at Michigan | Michigan struggled to establish itself offensively against Western Michigan, especially along the offensive line. Oklahoma’s aggressive defensive front should make things even more difficult. The Sooners are the better team, and Matt likes them to cover the short number on the road.
Oregon (-22) at Oklahoma State | Oregon had a closer-than-expected opener against Boise State, but Oklahoma State looked completely lost against Tulsa. Matt expects Dante Moore and the Ducks’ offense to find another level against a Cowboys defense that could be in for a long afternoon.
Iowa State (+14) at No. 21 Iowa | The Cy-Hawk game is traditionally a physical, low-scoring battle, and getting two full touchdowns is simply too much to pass up. Iowa State has won the last two meetings, but I like the Cyclones with a huge cushion in a rivalry game that could come down to one possession.
Zack
Zack has a little bit of everything this week.
He’s joining the Oklahoma State fade, backing a Big 12 favorite at home and taking a road favorite into Atlanta.
Oregon (-21.5) at Oklahoma State: Despite the loss to Tulsa, I’m not convinced the Cowboys are quite as bad as last season. Still, Oregon is really good, even if they did struggle in their opener against Boise State. For Oklahoma State’s sake, hopefully the final score isn’t as bad as last season, but this should still be a hefty blowout in favor of the Ducks. As a Cowboy fan, I’d love to be wrong on this one.
BYU (-7.5) vs. Arizona: The Cougars had a dominant win against a pretty awful Utah Tech team last week, but BYU is expected to make a return to the Big 12 Championship for a reason. Arizona has some believers, but I’m not convinced. I don’t see the Wildcats defense holding up, which should make for an easy cover for the Cougars.
Tennessee (-11.5) at Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have a reputation for high highs and low lows. It’s going to be hard to bounce back after a rough Week 1 loss to Colorado, though, and hosting a top-20 team like the Volunteers doesn’t make it any easier. I like Tennessee by a couple of touchdowns.
Caleb
Caleb is looking for a bounce-back week after going 1-2 last weekend.
His card includes the popular Oklahoma pick, the biggest Oregon number selected by any of our writers and the smallest spread on the entire Heartland Sports board.
Oklahoma (-5.5) vs. Michigan: Michigan wasn’t really able to move the ball much against Western Michigan while I do expect them to play better this week I just don’t think it will be enough to cover 5.5 points.
Oregon (-23.5) vs. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State just looked awful against Tulsa a week ago, and this Oregon team is coming in trying to show the college football world that last week’s close game isn’t who this team is. I expect Oregon to come out and blow this game wide open.
Ohio State +1.5 vs. Texas: While I think this game will be a close one I do expect Ohio State to pull off the win. I do not think the Texas secondary can keep up with Ohio State’s wide receivers and on the other side of the ball I do not think the Texas O-line can handle this Ohio State D-line.
Craig
Craig’s card includes two of the week’s consensus selections.
Then he decided to throw caution to the wind.
Because after taking Oklahoma -5.5 and Oregon -22, Craig is laying the biggest number selected by anyone this week.
LSU -35.5.
That’s a lot of points.
Oklahoma (-5.5) at Michigan: On paper Oklahoma is simply the better team here. That being said, Michigan has a talented group of guys. I do think they’re much better than what they showed in week one. However, with Oklahoma improving everywhere offensively I’m giving them the edge in this one.
Oregon (-22) at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State couldn’t score more than 10 points against Tulsa. This is a bloodbath waiting to happen in Stillwater. Give me the Ducks by a lot.
LSU (-35.5) vs. Louisiana Tech: LSU dominated Clemson last week and will do the same to Louisiana Tech. I typically try to stay away from large spreads, but Lane Kiffin is known for running up the score.
Welcome to Week 2.
The Week 2 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After two weekends, here’s where we stand:
| Rank | Writer | Last Week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| T-2 | Craig | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| T-2 | Zack | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| 4 | Caleb | 1-2 | 2-4 |
Matt is still sitting alone at the top.
But a 5-1 record sounds a lot more comfortable than it actually is.
We’re playing three games every week.
One bad Saturday can change everything.
A 3-0 weekend from Craig or Zack could put them right back in the race.
Caleb could erase a lot of ground with one perfect card.
And Matt?
Well, Matt could discover very quickly that a hot start doesn’t last forever.
The combined Heartland Sports record entering Week 2 is 13-11.
We’re still above .500.
That’s the good news.
The bad news?
We’ve got an entire season to ruin it.
Week 2 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Oklahoma -5.5 | Oregon -23.5 | Ohio State +1.5 |
| Craig | Oklahoma -5.5 | Oregon -22 | LSU -35.5 |
| Matt | Oklahoma -5.5 | Oregon -22 | Iowa State +14 |
| Zack | Oregon -21.5 | BYU -7.5 | Tennessee -11.5 |
Week 2 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Game: Oklahoma at Michigan
Three of four writers are playing the game.
All three are taking the same side.
Caleb: Oklahoma -5.5
Craig: Oklahoma -5.5
Matt: Oklahoma -5.5
That’s as much agreement as you’re going to find in a competition built around four people pretending they can outsmart Las Vegas.
Michigan has the home field.
Oklahoma has the confidence of three-fourths of the Heartland Sports staff.
We’ll find out Saturday night which one matters more.
The Other Most Popular Game: Oregon at Oklahoma State
Three writers are also taking Oregon.
But unlike Oklahoma, they’re getting three different numbers.
- Zack: Oregon -21.5
- Craig: Oregon -22
- Matt: Oregon -22
- Caleb: Oregon -23.5
Actually, three writers are on the Ducks—Caleb, Craig and Zack—with Matt staying away from the game.
So if Oregon wins by 22 or 23 points, we’re going to have some very interesting conversations.
Biggest Spread: LSU -35.5
Craig owns the biggest number of the week.
He’s asking LSU to beat Louisiana Tech by at least 36 points.
That’s always dangerous territory.
One late touchdown.
One backup quarterback.
One coach deciding he has seen enough.
Any of those things can turn a comfortable 38-point lead into a frustrating 35-point win.
But Craig is trusting Lane Kiffin to keep his foot on the gas.
Smallest Spread: Ohio State +1.5
Caleb has the smallest number on the board.
And he’s not just taking the points.
He expects Ohio State to win.
It’s essentially a pick’em game with a little extra protection.
Caleb believes Ohio State’s wide receivers can challenge Texas in the secondary while the Buckeyes’ defensive front creates problems for the Longhorns up front.
Underdog Watch
Only two writers are taking underdogs this week.
Caleb is taking:
Ohio State +1.5
Matt is taking:
Iowa State +14
Matt’s selection is particularly interesting because +14 is the biggest underdog number anyone is taking this week.
In a rivalry game historically known for defensive struggles and ugly scores, two touchdowns could feel like an enormous amount of room.
Or it could disappear by halftime.
That’s why we play the games.
The Oregon Line Watch
Here’s something worth keeping an eye on.
All three writers backing Oregon have slightly different numbers.
Zack has the Ducks at -21.5.
Craig has them at -22.
Caleb is laying -23.5.
That means the difference between covering and not covering could create three very different reactions inside the Heartland Sports group chat.
A 22-point Oregon win?
Zack celebrates.
Craig probably pushes.
Caleb starts asking why anyone thought Oklahoma State could stay within 24 points.
And that’s before we even get to the rest of the games.
And Now We Find Out If We Learned Anything
That’s the thing about this competition.
Week 0 gave us confidence.
Week 1 took some of it away.
Now comes Week 2.
Matt is sitting at 5-1.
Craig and Zack are both trying to climb back above .500.
Caleb is looking for the kind of weekend that can completely change the direction of his season.
The slate is loaded.
We’ve got Oklahoma traveling to Michigan.
Oregon heading into Stillwater.
A massive Texas-Ohio State matchup.
The Cy-Hawk rivalry.
And Craig asking LSU to win by 36 points.
So, naturally, we’re completely confident in all of our selections.
At least until the games kick off.
That’s college football.
That’s the spread.
And that’s the Heartland Sports guessing competition.
Week 2 is here.
Let’s see who actually knows what they’re doing.