We went from bad to worse last week.
After a Week 2 that saw Zack finish as the only writer with a winning record, Week 3 brought us something even less inspiring:
We all went 1-2.
All four of us.
Nobody escaped.
Nobody got to talk trash.
Nobody had a winning weekend.
Just four identical 1-2 records sitting there staring back at us.
But we haven’t lost heart.
We’re college football writers. Resilience is apparently part of the job description.
So we’re back for Week 4 with another 12 picks, another collection of questionable decisions and, most importantly, another opportunity to convince ourselves that we know what we’re doing.
And this week, we’ve found something remarkably close to consensus.
All four of us are taking Ole Miss against Florida.
That’s where we’ll start.
The Game Everyone Is Taking: Ole Miss at Florida
It doesn’t happen often around here, but we have another unanimous game selection.
All four writers are taking Ole Miss against Florida.
That’s a pretty significant distinction, but the underlying message is the same:
Nobody at Heartland Sports is picking Florida to cover.
Ole Miss is coming off a huge win over LSU, and the Rebels have suddenly become one of the most intriguing teams in the country.
Florida, meanwhile, has looked much better than some expected coming into the season.
That makes this a particularly interesting test of whether Ole Miss can carry its momentum into a hostile environment.
Caleb
“Ole Miss looked like one of the best teams in the country last week. While Florida has looked way better than I expected them to this season, I do not see a way this Florida team can slow down this Ole Miss offense.”
Craig
“The Rebels are legit. They proved that a week ago. They’ll be in a hostile environment, but defense travels.”
Matt
The Rebels’ explosive, fast-tempo system is designed to stress a defense vertically. Early-season data indicates that Florida’s secondary struggles with deep-third coverage rules and tracking deep options, which directly exposes them to the Ole Miss aerial attack. Give me Ole Miss to cover and maybe even win outright.
Zack
“Yes, I’m biting on this spread. Obviously Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m just not seeing how the Rebels are the underdog after the big win against LSU, even if they are playing in the swamp. I guess we’ll see if there’s a hangover or not, but I like Ole Miss here.”
So there you have it.
Four writers.
Four Ole Miss selections.
Three taking the points.
One laying the points.
If the Rebels win this game, there won’t be much debate about which side Heartland Sports was on.
Texas Is Getting Plenty of Love, Too
Ole Miss is the only unanimous selection this week, but Texas is the other game that shows up on multiple cards.
Caleb and Matt are both taking the Longhorns on the road against Tennessee.
Caleb:
“Texas is looking like they are the best team in the country, while going on the road to Tennessee isn’t an easy trip at all. I do expect the Longhorns to be able to take care of business on the road.”
Matt:
Texas’ offensive line vs. Tennessee’s pass rush is the defining mismatch. Because the betting public heavily weighs the hostile atmosphere of Neyland Stadium, oddsmakers have kept this line under a touchdown. Laying less than five points with the most complete team in the nation creates exceptional market value and I’ll jump on it.
Caleb is laying four.
Matt is laying 4.5.
So the two of them agree on the side, even if they don’t have exactly the same number.
And there’s no shortage of confidence in Texas from either writer.
Caleb
Texas (-4) at Tennessee | Texas is looking like they are the best team in the country, while going on the road to Tennessee isn’t an easy trip at all. I do expect the Longhorns to be able to take care of business on the road.
Ole Miss (+3.5) at Florida | Ole Miss looked like one of the best teams in the country last week. While Florida has looked way better than I expected them to this season, I do not see a way this Florida team can slow down this Ole Miss offense.
USC (+3) at Oregon | USC has looked amazing against not great competition, and Oregon hasn’t looked good at all outside of playing Portland State. I think this is going to be a high scoring fun game to watch where USC pulls off the win.
Caleb’s card is particularly interesting because he’s the only writer taking USC +3.
He’s also one of three writers taking Ole Miss with the points.
Craig
Georgia (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma | Let’s face it, the Georgia defensive line is going to eat up Oklahoma. If you think the Sooners will magically figure something out offensively in a week, you’re crazy. Georgia wins this one comfortably.
Ole Miss (+3.5) at Florida | The Rebels are legit. They proved that a week ago. They’ll be in a hostile environment, but defense travels.
Michigan (-5.5) vs. Iowa | There’s going to be a lot of defense in this game. I’m taking Michigan to cover here due to them being at home and having the better offense. In a game where there won’t be a lot of points, I’m giving the edge to the better offense.
Craig has the biggest spread of the week among his selections with Georgia laying 13.5 against Oklahoma.
He’s also expecting a defensive battle between Michigan and Iowa.
Matt
Texas (-4.5) at Tennessee | Texas’ offensive line vs. Tennessee’s pass rush is the defining mismatch. Because the betting public heavily weighs the hostile atmosphere of Neyland Stadium, oddsmakers have kept this line under a touchdown. Laying less than five points with the most complete team in the nation creates exceptional market value and I’ll jump on it.
Utah (+8) at Iowa State | I believe that this another line that is highly inflated due to public overreaction regarding home-field advantage at Jack Trice Stadium. I expec this to be a low-scoring game where total points are at a premium. Getting Utah’s defense with more than a full touchdown is a gift in my opinion.
Ole Miss (-3.5) at Florida | The Rebels’ explosive, fast-tempo system is designed to stress a defense vertically. Early-season data indicates that Florida’s secondary struggles with deep-third coverage rules and tracking deep options, which directly exposes them to the Ole Miss aerial attack. Give me Ole Miss to cover and maybe even win outright.
Zack
Ole Miss (+3.5) at Florida | Yes, I’m biting on this spread. Obviously Vegas knows something we don’t, but I’m just not seeing how the Rebels are the underdog after the big win against LSU, even if they are playing in the swamp. I guess we’ll see if there’s a hangover or not, but I like Ole Miss here.
South Carolina at Alabama (-11.5) | South Carolina has two blowout wins—neither particularly impressive—and a close loss to Mississippi State, who hasn’t impressed me. I like the Crimson Tide to win in dominant fashion at home on a Saturday night.
Missouri (+6.5) at Mississippi State | Again, I’m just not impressed with Mississippi State so far. The Tigers haven’t exactly wowed either, but I think they’re the better team, so I’m not just picking them to cover but also to win the game.”
The Week 4 Heartland Sports Scorecard
After three weeks, the competition was already starting to separate.
Then we all went 1-2.
So, heading into Week 4, here’s where things stand:
| Rank | Writer | Week 3 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 1-2 | 7-5 |
| 2 | Zack | 1-2 | 6-6 |
| T-3 | Caleb | 1-2 | 4-8 |
| T-3 | Craig | 1-2 | 4-8 |
Matt still holds the overall lead.
Zack is right behind him.
Caleb and Craig are tied.
And after everyone went 1-2 last week, nobody exactly has bragging rights heading into Saturday.
Week 4 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Texas -4 | Ole Miss +3.5 | USC +3 |
| Craig | Georgia -13.5 | Ole Miss +3.5 | Michigan -5.5 |
| Matt | Texas -4.5 | Utah +8 | Ole Miss -3.5 |
| Zack | Ole Miss +3.5 | Alabama -11.5 | Missouri +6.5 |
Week 4 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Game: Ole Miss at Florida
This is the obvious one.
All four of us are taking Ole Miss.
That means the entire Heartland Sports staff believes the Rebels are the right side of this game.
And that’s probably the biggest storyline of the week.
Will Ole Miss prove last week’s win over LSU was the beginning of something bigger?
Or will the trip to Gainesville and the potential for a hangover from that massive victory change the equation?
We’ll find out Saturday.
The Other Consensus: Texas
Caleb and Matt are both backing Texas at Tennessee.
The Longhorns are laying four points for Caleb and 4.5 for Matt.
That’s a difficult road environment, but both believe Texas is capable of handling it.
If the Longhorns take care of business, Caleb and Matt will have a strong start to their Week 4 cards.
Biggest Spread: Georgia -13.5
Craig owns the biggest point spread selected this week.
He’s laying 13.5 points with Georgia against Oklahoma.
That’s a significant number, especially in an SEC matchup, but Craig isn’t concerned.
He believes Georgia’s defensive line will create too many problems for the Sooners and that Oklahoma won’t suddenly fix its offensive problems in one week.
Smallest Spread: Ole Miss +3.5
The Ole Miss-Florida game also happens to feature the smallest spread selected by the group.
Underdog Watch
There’s no shortage of underdogs on the Week 4 cards.
Caleb has Ole Miss +3.5 and USC +3.
Craig has Ole Miss +3.5.
Matt has Ole Miss +3.5 and Utah +8.
Zack has Ole Miss +3.5 and Missouri +6.5.
That’s five underdog selections across the four cards.
And there’s an interesting wrinkle:
Each of us has at least one underdog this week.
That’s a departure from last week, when the group leaned heavily toward favorites.
The Ole Miss Line Watch
This is the one to circle.
All four of us are on Ole Miss.
So if you’re keeping score at home, the group is essentially asking one question:
Can Ole Miss win this game?
And Now We Find Out If We Can Actually Bounce Back
Last week was humbling.
Four sets of picks.
Twelve total picks.
Four 1-2 records.
Not exactly the kind of weekend that inspires confidence.
But that’s the beauty of college football.
Every Saturday gives you another chance to forget what happened the Saturday before.
And Week 4 gives us plenty of opportunities.
Texas is traveling to Tennessee.
Ole Miss is heading into The Swamp.
USC visits Oregon.
Georgia hosts Oklahoma.
Michigan hosts Iowa.
Utah travels to Iowa State.
Alabama welcomes South Carolina.
And Missouri heads to Mississippi State.
But there’s one game that will have all four of us watching a little more closely than the rest.
Ole Miss at Florida.
All four of us are betting on the Rebels.
We haven’t lost heart.
We’ve just lost a few football picks.
There’s a difference.
At least that’s what we’re telling ourselves.
Week 4 is here.
Let’s see if somebody can finally put together a winning weekend.