Well, look at that.
We can actually pick football games.
After a miserable Week 5 and a collective 3-9 showing, the Heartland Sports crew finally found its footing last weekend. October is off to a much better start, and for the first time in a while, we’ve got some reasons to feel good about our picks.
All four of us posted winning records in Week 5.
Craig, Matt and Zack each finished 2-1, while Caleb put together a perfect 3-0 weekend.
That’s a combined 9-3 record.
Now that’s more like it.
Caleb deserves the spotlight this week after getting every single pick right. Meanwhile, the rest of us managed to get back above .500 for the weekend, giving the entire group a much-needed confidence boost.
But we know better than to get too comfortable.
College football has a way of humbling even the most confident prognosticators, and we’ve certainly learned that lesson the hard way this season.
Now we’re heading into Week 6 with another 12 picks, another loaded slate of games and a chance to keep the momentum rolling.
And this week, we’ve got a couple of matchups that have caught the attention of multiple writers.
Missouri is becoming a popular pick against Texas A&M.
Tennessee is getting plenty of support against Arkansas.
And perhaps the biggest game of the weekend has two of us backing Georgia against Alabama.
Let’s get into it.
The Game Everyone Is Taking: Missouri at Texas A&M
Missouri is quickly becoming one of the most intriguing teams in the country, and two Heartland Sports writers are buying into what the Tigers are doing.
Caleb and Matt are both taking Missouri to cover against Texas A&M.
Caleb is laying 3.5 points, while Matt has the Tigers at -3.5 as well.
Craig is also backing Missouri, although his listed line is slightly different at -3.
That means three of the four of us are taking Missouri this week.
That’s the closest thing we have to a consensus pick on the board.
Missouri is coming off an impressive performance that has raised expectations for what this team can accomplish. The Tigers have been productive offensively, averaging 37.6 points per game, and they’ll face a Texas A&M team that has struggled to find consistency on offense.
Caleb: Missouri -3.5
“Missouri has looked good this year, while the A&M offense has struggled. I expect Missouri to control the ball and really control this game.”
Craig: Missouri -3
“Missouri surprised a lot of people last week. Possibly the best performance in the country. I think they ride the hot hand into College Station and get another solid win.”
Matt: Missouri -3.5
Missouri’s offense averaging 37.6 points per game and will be facing an Aggies secondary that has been highly vulnerable against high-caliber aerial assaults, allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.
Tennessee Is Another Popular Pick
Missouri isn’t the only team attracting multiple selections.
Tennessee is also getting plenty of love against Arkansas.
Both Caleb and Matt are laying 13.5 points with the Volunteers.
And neither seem particularly concerned about the size of the spread.
Arkansas has struggled against Power Four competition this season, while Tennessee brings an explosive rushing attack and a defense that has been effective at pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
The matchup appears to favor the Volunteers on both sides of the ball.
Caleb: Tennessee -13.5
“Arkansas hasn’t come within 27 points of a Power Four opponent this year, and I simply don’t see that changing this week.”
Matt: Tennessee -13.5
This matchup features a massive structural mismatch on both sides of the ball. Tennessee’s ground attack is averaging 240.6 rushing yards per game and will face an Arkansas front that allows 146 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Volunteers lead the SEC in sacks and allow just 15.2 points per game, presenting a nightmare matchup for an entirely one-dimensional Arkansas offense that ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing (92.2 YPG).
Georgia at Alabama: The Game of the Week
If you’re looking for the biggest matchup on the Week 6 schedule, this is probably it.
Georgia heads to Alabama in a game that could have major implications for the SEC race.
And we’ve got two writers backing the Bulldogs.
Caleb and Craig are both taking Georgia +1.5.
That means both believe Georgia has a strong chance to win outright, even though the Bulldogs are getting points.
Alabama has the home-field advantage, but our writers aren’t convinced that will be enough.
Caleb: Georgia +1.5
“Georgia’s defense is built to make Alabama one-dimensional, and their offense is built to control the pace of the game. I expect the Bulldogs to be able to control this game.”
Craig: Georgia +1.5
“Best matchup of the week here. Really this one could go either way. But, I think Georgia is the more talented team and has the better coaching staff.”
Caleb
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M
Missouri has looked good this year, while the A&M offense has struggled. I expect Missouri to control the ball and really control this game.
Tennessee (-13.5) vs. Arkansas
Arkansas hasn’t come within 27 points of a Power Four opponent this year, and I simply don’t see that changing this week.
Georgia (+1.5) at Alabama
Georgia’s defense is built to make Alabama one-dimensional, and their offense is built to control the pace of the game. I expect the Bulldogs to be able to control this game.
Craig
Missouri (-3) at Texas A&M
“Missouri surprised a lot of people last week. Possibly the best performance in the country. I think they ride the hot hand into College Station and get another solid win.”
Penn State (-1) vs. USC
“The Trojans have been avoiding disaster for a few weeks. I believe this is the week their luck runs out. Give me Penn State at home.”
Georgia (+1.5) at Alabama
“Best matchup of the week here. Really this one could go either way. But, I think Georgia is the more talented team and has the better coaching staff.”
Matt
Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas
This matchup features a massive structural mismatch on both sides of the ball. Tennessee’s ground attack is averaging 240.6 rushing yards per game and will face an Arkansas front that allows 146 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Volunteers lead the SEC in sacks and allow just 15.2 points per game, presenting a nightmare matchup for an entirely one-dimensional Arkansas offense that ranks dead last in the SEC in rushing (92.2 YPG).
Nebraska (+7.5) vs. Indiana
Indiana is undefeated but, they are just 1-4 against the spread this season. There’s also major trap potential here with the Ohio State game looming next week.
Missouri (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M
Missouri’s offense averaging 37.6 points per game and will be facing an Aggies secondary that has been highly vulnerable against high-caliber aerial assaults, allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.
Zack
Iowa State at BYU (-10.5)
“The Cougars struggled last weekend against TCU, but they’re still the top team in the Big 12. I think they bounce back against a Cyclone squad that has probably outperformed this far this season.”
Houston (+2.5) at Kansas State
“The Cougars needed a fourth-quarter rally to beat UCF, but they proved they don’t quit when times get tough. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week, and they’re playing at home, but I think Houston’s offense is good enough to get it done on the road.”
Kansas at Utah (-14.5)
“The Utes are coming off a week of rest, and the Jayhawks might be the worst team in the conference. I like a blowout win for Utah at home.”
The Week 6 Heartland Sports Scorecard
| Rank | Writer | Week 5 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 2-1 | 10-8 |
| 2 | Zack | 2-1 | 9-9 |
| T-3 | Caleb | 3-0 | 7-11 |
| T-3 | Craig | 2-1 | 7-11 |
After Week 4’s collective 3-9 disaster, things finally started looking up last weekend.
All four of us posted winning records in Week 5.
Caleb led the way with a perfect 3-0 performance, while Craig, Matt and Zack each went 2-1.
That’s a combined 9-3 record, and it gives the entire group some much-needed momentum heading into October.
Matt continues to hold the overall lead, but Zack remains within striking distance.
Caleb’s perfect weekend helped him close the gap, while Craig also picked up a couple of wins.
The standings are still relatively tight, and another strong week could change the picture significantly.
Week 6 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Missouri -3.5 | Tennessee -13.5 | Georgia +1.5 |
| Craig | Missouri -3 | Penn State -1 | Georgia +1.5 |
| Matt | Tennessee -13.5 | Nebraska +7.5 | Missouri -3.5 |
| Zack | BYU -10.5 | Houston +2.5 | Utah -14.5 |
Week 6 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Pick: Missouri
Missouri is the only team appearing on three different cards this week.
Caleb, Craig and Matt are all backing the Tigers against Texas A&M.
The three writers differ slightly on the line, but the message is clear: they believe Missouri has the advantage in this matchup.
The Tigers have been productive offensively, while Texas A&M has struggled to find consistency.
If Missouri wins comfortably, three Heartland Sports writers will have a strong start to their Week 6 cards.
The Other Consensus: Tennessee
Caleb and Matt are both laying 13.5 points with Tennessee against Arkansas.
The Volunteers have a significant advantage in rushing production, and their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks could create major problems for the Razorbacks.
Both writers believe Tennessee can win by at least two touchdowns.
Game of the Week: Georgia at Alabama
This is the matchup that could define the weekend.
Georgia and Alabama are two of the SEC’s biggest programs, and both enter the game with plenty to prove.
Caleb and Craig are backing Georgia +1.5.
They’re betting on the Bulldogs’ defense, overall talent and coaching to give them the edge in a game that could go either way.
If Georgia wins outright, both writers will have one of the biggest picks of the week in the books.
Biggest Spread: Nebraska +7.5 / Utah -14.5
Matt is taking Nebraska and the 7.5 points against undefeated Indiana.
Zack, meanwhile, is laying 14.5 with Utah against Kansas.
Those are two very different approaches to games featuring substantial spreads.
Matt is betting on Nebraska to keep things close against a strong opponent.
Zack expects Utah to take care of business against a struggling Kansas team.
Both picks will be worth watching.
The Bounce-Back Watch
After a difficult September, the Heartland Sports crew finally found some momentum in Week 5.
Caleb went 3-0.
Craig, Matt and Zack each went 2-1.
Now the challenge is to prove that wasn’t just a one-week blip.
Can Caleb follow up a perfect weekend with another strong performance?
Can Matt maintain his lead in the season standings?
Can Zack close the gap?
And can Craig climb out of the bottom tie?
Week 6 gives everyone another opportunity to make a statement.