Kickoff: 11 AM CT
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater, Oklahoma)
Television: ESPN2
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Twitter: Follow @HeartlandPokes for live tweets during the game
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) are riding a wave of momentum that Stillwater hasn’t seen in a few years. On Saturday, they can match the combined total of the last couple of seasons as they host the UCF Knights (3-2).
The Cowboys opened up Big 12 play two weeks ago with a comeback victory in Morgantown against the West Virginia Mountaineers, and UCF dropped to 1-1 in conference play last week when they lost to the Houston Cougars. The Knights had a 17-0 lead headed into the fourth quarter, but the Cougars rallied with 27 straight points to win the game. The Knights have struggled on offense, managing just 15 points per game in 3 games against Power 4 schools. They also have the lowest total yardage in the Big 12, ranking particularly low in passing with just 178.2 pass yards per game.
Oklahoma State looks like the Big 12’s best offense, averaging a conference-best 548.3 yards of total offense. 327 yards per game come through the air, which is by far the best in the Big 12. Drew Mestemaker is playing like the highly-touted transfer that everyone expected, and with weapons like Wyatt Young and Justin Bowick, the ceiling for this team continues to rise. Caleb Hawkins is looking more and more like a star running back, and while the run game ranks in the middle of the pack, Hawkins is averaging over 100 yards on the ground per game, and his ability to balance the pass game makes the offense as dangerous as anybody in the country.
The Cowboys are double-digit favorites headed into this game, and Boone Pickens Stadium will be full, so this is a great time to keep the momentum rolling. If they can keep playing at this level, they may work their way into the Big 12 contender conversation, and the season-opening loss to Tulsa will be nothing but a bump in the road that fueled the program back to the top.
How the Cowboys Win
As good as the offense has looked lately, the defense has struggled to stop the run. UCF ranks in the middle of the Big 12 in rushing yards, but OSU has the 2nd-worst rushing defense this season. Drew Mestemaker should be able to lead the Cowboys to the end zone just fine, and as long as the defense can stand up and get some stops, Oklahoma State should be able to get the win.
How the Knights Win
UCF’s best bet at winning this game is winning the turnover battle. The Knights have forced 10 turnovers through 5 games, but just 1 in their 2 losses. They don’t stand much of a chance at trying to match touchdown for touchdown with the Cowboys, but if they can steal some possessions and maybe even score a defensive touchdown, they could make this game far more interesting than expected.
Odds & Predictions
Staff Score Predictions
| Staff | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Caleb | Oklahoma State 34 – UCF 24 |
| Craig | Oklahoma State 37 – UCF 24 |
| Matt | Oklahoma State 38 – UCF 20 |
| Zack | Oklahoma State 34 – UCF 17 |
An Oklahoma State Win Would…
- Mark the 50th career win as a head coach for Eric Morris.
- Improve the Cowboys to 4-1 or better for the first time since 2022.
- Mark OSU’s first win against UCF.
- Mark OSU’s 138th win since the beginning of the 2010 season, ranking among the top 15 in the FBS.
Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
- Dating back to 2008, OSU is 83-14 when winning the turnover battle.
- Dating back to 2005, OSU is 50-7 when not committing a turnover.
- OSU has won 88 of its past 91 games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003. Including games when opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, OSU has won 96 of its past 100.
- OSU is 41-23 in its past 64 games decided by fewer than 10 points.
- OSU is 54-10 in its past 64 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.
- OSU has won five of its past seven overtime games.
- Drew Mestemaker has passed for at least 200 yards in 19 straight games – the longest active streak in the FBS. He’s passed for at least 250 yards in eight of his past nine games.
- Mestemaker has thrown at least one touchdown in 18 of his past 19 games.
- Caleb Hawkins has scored multiple touchdowns in six of his past 11 games. He’s scored at least three touchdowns in five of his past 10.
- Hawkins has rushed for at least 100 yards in six of his past 10 games.
- Wyatt Young has had more than 100 receiving yards in seven of his past 12 games.
- Israel Polk has at least one catch in 25 of his past 26 games played.
- Miles Coleman has at least one catch in each of his past 23 games played.
- Wyatt Young has at least one catch in each of his past 19 games played.
- Caleb Hawkins has at least one catch in 16 of his past 17 games played.
- Chris Barnes has at least one catch in each of his past 15 games played.
- Ethan Wesloski has made at least one tackle in 43 consecutive games, including every game he’s played since the beginning of the 2023 season. He’s had at least three tackles in 15 straight games.
- Jack Puckett has made at least one tackle in 34 of the 38 games of his career and at least three tackles in 30 games. He played at the Div. II level until 2026.
- Isaiah Chisom has made at least two tackles in 30 straight games.
- Quinton Hammonds has made at least two tackles in 15 straight games.
- Jaleel Johnson has made at least two tackles in 11 of his past 13 games.
- Christian Bodnar has made at least three tackles in nine of his past 10 games.
- LaDainian Fields has started 10 straight games for OSU, the longest streak of any player on the roster