Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Road Warrior Mentality Will Help OKC Cover At +7

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 8 PM CT

Location: FedEx Forum (Memphis, Tennessee)

Spread: Memphis (-7)

Total: 227

Thunder/Grizzlies Trends Against The Spread

ThunderGrizzlies
All
16-11 (59.3%)11-11-1 (50%)
Location
11-3 (78.6%) on the road4-7-1 (36.4%) at home
Status
15-11 (57.7%) as underdog or pick3-5-1 (60%) as favorite
Location Status
11-3 (78.6%) as road dog1-4-1 (20%) at home favorite
Head To Head
0-0 (0%)0-0 (0%)

Thunder/Grizzlies Trends Against The Total

Oklahoma City is only hitting the over 46.2% of the time on the road and Memphis is only hitting the over 41.7% of the time at home. That said, both teams are going over 50% of the time or better when the line is greater than 205 points.

When playing teams that score more than 102 points per game the Thunder are hitting the over 54.2% of the time and the Grizzlies are going over the total 57.9% of the time. The trends are very similar between the two when facing teams that allow more than 102 points per game. In that situation Oklahoma City is hitting the over 52% of the time and Memphis is still a solid 57.9%.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 OKC107.5113.344.945.123.44.57.3L13-7
 MEM111.3112.546.743.828.34.79.8L14-6

Key Players

It goes without saying that the return of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is huge for the Thunder tonight. This is a good spot for him to return as well against a Memphis team that is 4-8 at home. Through 21 games SGA had been Oklahoma City’s leader in minutes played (33.8 per game) and he’s also the team’s leading scorer (22.6 points per game) as well as assist leader (6.5 per game).

On the Grizzlies’ bench you have to look at center Jonas Valanciunas who is averaging a double-double this season with 16.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. With OKC center Al Horford possibly out for tonight this could set up for the Memphis big man to have a very big night.

Season History

First meeting of the season

Why The Thunder Will Cover (+7)

A lackluster performance at home on Tuesday night shouldn’t chase you off from the Thunder as underdogs. In fact, it goes right along with the season trend that is is a much better team against the spread on the road than they are at home. Meanwhile Memphis isn’t a great home team against the spread. The Grizzlies are just 4-7-1 at home against the spread and only 1-4 as a home favorite. That plays strongly in to Oklahoma City’s hands as a team that is 11-3 this season as a road underdog.

Both teams are 50% against the spread this season on the second night of a back-to-back so that shouldn’t be much of a factor at all tonight. There are zero trends this season that lead me to believe picking Memphis (-7) would be a good choice. If you want my true opinion, Oklahoma City should actually be a slight favorite tonight.

Why The Game Will Hit The Over

This is the most intriguing aspect of tonight’s game for me. I feel like the line is pretty high at 227 but I also feel the potential absence of Horford and the return of SGA could boost scoring for both teams.

Neither is great at hitting the over in this situation. Oklahoma City is just 46.2% at hitting the over on the road and Memphis is hits the over just 41.7% of the time at home. That said, the defensive trends mentioned four sections above lead me to think this game is destined for a finish on the top side of the over/under. However, my primary source of confidence here stems from the fact that both teams have hit the over 100% of the time this season on the second night of a back-to-back. The Thunder are 4-0 in that situation and the Grizzlies are 2-0. For that reason I’ll take the over.

On The Season

We just started this feature so bear with us.

Against the Spread: 2-2 Last Pick: OKC (+6.5) vs. Portland

Over/Under: 2-2 Last Pick: OKC/POR Over 225

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