Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Atlanta (-5)
Hawks/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|16-16 (50%)||18-14 (56.2%)|
|8-7 (53.3%) on the road||6-9 (40%) at home|
|7-8 (46.7%) as a favorite||16-14 (53.3%) as an underdog|
|3-3 (85.7%) as road favorite||5-9 (36.7%) as a home dog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Hawks/Thunder Trends Against The Total
Atlanta comes to Oklahoma City hitting the over just 40% of the time on the road. The Thunder aren’t much better at home with an average of 46.7% against the over at home.
The Hawks are an even 15-15 against the over when playing on the road against teams that averaged more than 102 points per game allowed. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 14-16-1 against the total when playing teams at home that allow more than 102 points per game.
If you’d like to see a battle of the guards then you’re in for a good one tonight! Atlanta’s Trae Young is nearly averaging a double-double on the season with 27.2 points and 9.5 assists per game. OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t far behind with an average of 23.5 points and 6.4 assists per game.
One position to watch is in the middle where Clint Capela (13.8 rebounds per game) could have a big night for the Hawks if Al Horford can’t play for OKC.
First meeting this season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+5)
I don’t love the Thunder here but I do like them. Atlanta has an overall better record against the spread on the road (8-7) than Oklahoma City does at home (6-9) but the Hawks are only 7-8 against the spread this season while the Thunder have made a living as underdogs (16-14).
Now, an alarming trend to OKC fans should be that Atlanta is 5-3 against the spread when the line is 3.5-6.5 points, but the Thunder can counter that with a 16-10 record against the spread following a day off and that’s really were I think this will be decided.
Why The Game Will Not Hit The Over
I’ve been a lot better with the over/under since starting this feature than I have been against the spread. That said, we’re looking at an under again tonight. No matter which stat you pick for tonight it most likely trends towards the under.
Atlanta is 6-9 against the over on the road and Oklahoma City is 7-8 against the over at home. After a day off the Hawks only hit the over 46.2% of the time and the Thunder are even worse by hitting it just 36% of the time following a day off.
Here’s the dagger for me though, and the reason for my confidence in the under. Atlanta has only hit the over 14.3% of the time this season when the total was between 226.5 and 229.5. Combine that with just about every other stat trending towards the under and you’ve got a pretty clear choice here.
On The Season
So maybe take my picks against the spread with a grain of salt but 6-3 with the over/under isn’t bad.
Against the Spread: 3-6 Last Pick: San Antonio (+1) at OKC
Over/Under: 6-3 Last Pick: San Antonio/OKC Under (217.5)
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