Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Back On The Road As Underdogs

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)

Spread: Dallas (-8)

Total: 224.5

Thunder/Mavs Trends Against The Spread

ThunderMavs
All
19-15 (55.9%)14-19 (42.4%)
Location
12-5 (70.6%) on the road5-11 (31.2%) at home
Status
17-15 (53.1%) as an underdog or pick7-12 (36.8%) as a favorite
Location Status
11-5 (68.8%) as a road dog3-10 (30%) as a home favorite
Head To Head
0-0 (0%)0-0 (0%)

Thunder/Mavs Trends Against The Total

There are several mixed trends between these two teams when it comes to the total. The Thunder on hit the over 43.8% of the time on the road but the Mavs hit it 56.2% of the time on the road. Both teams have a winning record against the over when the total is between 223 and 226. OKC excels in that situation with a 3-1 record and Dallas is 4-3.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 OKC106.7112.444.944.323.44.37.1L14-6
 DAL112.5113.446.742.522.84.66.4W28-2

Key Players

Oklahoma City will look to continue developing talent around star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 23.2 points and 6.3 assists per game. Center Al Horford certainly isn’t a talent that needs to develop and the Thunder big man could have a better than average night should the Mavericks be without Willie Cauley-Stein in the middle.

Dallas could also be without Luka Doncic tonight as well. That means scoring will likely need to come from Kristaps Porzingas. That said, Doncic leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists so it’ll be a big miss if he can’t go.

Season History

First meeting of the season

Why The Thunder Will Cover (+8)

The potential of not having to play against Luka Doncic is huge for Oklahoma City. However, even before that the Thunder were trending well against the Mavs, especially considering they are on the road when they’ve posted a 12-5 record against the spread this season. The Mavs are 5-11 against the spread at home this season and just 3-10 as a home favorite. Even more alarming for Dallas is that they are 0-5 this season when favored between 6.5 and 9.5 points.

After a day off Oklahoma City is 17-10 against the spread and Dallas is only 12-15 following an off day.

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over

This is a rare occasion where I actually like the point spread more than I do the over/under. The reason why is the mixed trends that I mentioned above. That said, I have to pick one and I’m going with the under for the following reasons.

  • Both teams hit the over less than 50% of the time. (Both are at 48.5%)
  • The Thunder hit the over 43.8% of the time on the road.
  • OKC hits the over just 38.5% of the time after a day off.
  • Dallas hits the over just 48.1% of the time following a day off.
  • Luka Doncic may not play tonight.

On The Season

Still working on that record against the spread. It isn’t looking so hot right now.

Against the Spread: 3-8 Last Pick: OKC (+5) vs. Atlanta

Over/Under: 8-3 Last Pick: Atlanta/OKC Under (228)

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