Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT
Location: State Farm Arena (Atlanta, Georgia)
Spread: Hawks (-7)
Thunder/Hawks Trends Against The Spread
|22-18 (55%)||20-19-1 (51%)|
|13-7 (65%) on the road||10-9 (52%) at home|
|20-18 (52%) as an underdog or pick||10-10-1 (50%) as a favorite|
|12-7 (63%) as a road dog||6-5 (54%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Thunder/Hawks Trends Against The Total
OKC is 19-20-1 against the over this season.
Atlanta is 19-21 against the over this season.
The Hawks are hitting the over 47% of the time at home.
The Thunder are hitting the over 36% of the time on the road.
Trae Young may be a favorite among the local Oklahoma City fanbase but it was John Collins who burned the Thunder for 25 points and 8 rebounds on February 26th. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC to victory in that game with 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. On the season, SGA is averaging 23.6 points per game so he could easily be at his season averages at worst tonight.
Game 1 | Thunder 118 – Hawks 109
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+7)
Oklahoma City didn’t get off to a great start on this road trip with a 123-102 loss at Chicago. Trying to figure out the trends of this team against the spread has been mind-numbing this season but this should should be a bounce back night for the Thunder.
Atlanta is just over 50% against the spread at home this season and, despite the recent loss to Chicago, Oklahoma City is still covering the spread 65% of the time on the road. As a road underdog the Thunder are 12-7 against the spread and Atlanta is 6-5 against the spread as a home favorite.
Where the separation comes into play for me is that the Hawks are only 50% against the spread as a favorite this season. The Thunder aren’t much better as an underdog (52%) but at least they’re above .500. OKC also beat Atlanta by 9 last month as a 5.5-point underdog so there’s a pattern there of a favorable match-up.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (225.5)
Despite these two hitting the over in last month’s game this one is still trending towards the under in my opinion. Both teams are under 50% against the over on the season and the Thunder only hit the over 36% of the time on the road while Atlanta is doing so just 47% of the time at home. Following a day off OKC is 12-18-1 against the over and Atlanta is 15-17. That’s enough for me to pick the under tonight.
On The Season
I lost on both fronts Sunday which puts me on a two-game losing streak against the over.
Against the Spread: 4-12 Last Pick: OKC (+5.5) at Chicago
Over/Under: 11-5 Last Pick: OKC/Chicago over (225.5)
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