Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Sticking With The Under Against Houston

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 1:00 PM CT

Location: Toyota Center (Houston, Texas)

Spread: Thunder (-1)

Total: 218

Thunder/Rockets Trends Against The Spread

ThunderHawks
All
22-19 (53%)12-28 (30%)
Location
13-8 (61%) on the road3-16 (15%) at home
Status
2-0 (100%) as a favorite9-18 (33%) as an underdog or pick
Location Status
1-0 (100%) as a road favorite1-10 (10%) as a home funderdog
Head To Head
1-1 (50%)1-1 (50%)

Thunder/Rockets Trends Against The Total

OKC is 19-21-1 against the over this season.

Houston is 15-24-1 against the over this season.

The Rockets are hitting the over 22% of the time at home.

The Thunder are hitting the over 35% of the time on the road.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
OKC106.0112.244.844.322.84.46.9L25-5
 HOU106.7113.743.342.422.15.58.0L190-10

Key Players

Eric Gordon came off the bench to score a game-high 25 points in the first meeting between these teams this season on February 1st. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander produced 19 points and 5 assists in the losing effort.

Gordon scored 22 in the second meeting between the two but this go around he did so as a starter. For OKC it was Kenrich Williams leading the way with 19 points in a blowout win just two days after the first meeting of the season.

Series History

Game 1 | Rockets 136 – Thunder 106

Game 2 | Thunder 104 – Rockets 87

Why The Thunder Will Cover (-1)

There are a couple of things outside of the season trends that need to be considered here. First, this game has some draft pick implications and it’s pretty important that OKC win it. For that reason, I expect the Thunder to have a shorter bench this afternoon. Secondly, Houston is bad…just really bad. The Rockets haven’t won a game since February 4th and are riding a franchise record 19-game losing streak.

Now, for the trends. Despite recent losses, the Thunder are still a strong road team where they are covering the spread 61% of the time. OKC doesn’t have a lot of experience as a favorite this season but they are perfect when in that role. The Thunder are 2-0 as a favorite on the season and 1-0 as a road favorite.

Meanwhile, Houston is just 1-10 against the spread as a home underdog on the season and are only 9-25 against the spread following a day off. If the Thunder don’t cover in this one then things have really gone a lot further south than we anticipated.

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (218)

This game is definitely trending towards the under. Both sides are terrible against the over this season. Houston only hits the over 22% of the time at home and Oklahoma City just 35% of the time on the road. When the line is between 216.5 and 219.5 the Rockets are just 1-5 (16%) against the spread. Both teams are also terrible after an off day. The Thunder hit the over just 38% of the time following a day off and the Rockets are at 39% following an off day.

Nothing is guaranteed in sports but this game hitting the under is as close as you’ll get.

On The Season

I hate trying to handicap this team on this particular season!

Against the Spread: 4-13 Last Pick: OKC (+7) at Atlanta

Over/Under: 12-5 Last Pick: OKC/Atlanta under (225.5)

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