Oklahoma Sooners

Thunder Against The Spread | How Can You Not Pick The Cavs?

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT

Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Cavs (-3.5)

Total: 218

Cavs/Thunder Trends Against The Spread

CavsThunder
All
20-30 (40%)25-26 (49%)
Location
8-18 (30%) on the road10-16 (38%) at home
Status
1-3 (25%) as a favorite23-26 (46%) as an underdog or pick
Location Status
0-1 (0%) as a road favorite9-16 (36%) as a home underdog
Head To Head
0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)

Cavs/Thunder Trends Against The Total

OKC is 25-25-1 against the over this season.

Cleveland is 22-27-1 against the over this season.

The Thunder are hitting the over 61% of the time at home.

The Cavs are hitting the over 38% of the time on the road.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 CLE103.1111.545.042.923.35.08.1W13-7
 OKC105.7112.044.545.022.54.66.9L43-7

Key Players

Point guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are leading Cleveland offensively. Sexton is producing an average of 23.9 points per game while Garland is dishing out a team-high 5.9 assists. Garland is also coming off a 37-point performance at San Antonio.

OKC’s injury list grew by one overnight with Aleksej Pokusevski being added as day-to-day following last night’s 25-point performance against Charlotte. That pretty much puts point guard Theo Maledon in the spotlight as the Thunder star tonight. He matched Poku’s 25 points against the Hornets and now heads to the opening tip as Oklahoma City’s key guy on both ends of the floor.

Series History

Game 1 | Oklahoma City 117 – Cleveland 101

Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+3.5)

If you make this selection based solely on the trends (which I often do) then OKC is the clear choice here. Cleveland has only been favored four times this season and just once as a road favorite. The Cavs are 1-3 in those games and 0-1 as the road favorite. When facing an opponent as a 2-5 point underdog the Thunder are 8-5 against the spread. OKC is also 7-4 against the spread when facing teams that have won less than 45% of its games. Finally, the Thunder are 1-0 against the spread this season when playing Cleveland.

However, despite the season trends, you have to consider what is currently happening. It wouldn’t shock me if Oklahoma City had the longest injury report in the entire NBA. The Thunder have failed to cover in the last four games, and seven of the last eight. Even against a poor team like Detroit OKC still lost by 24 when they were just three point dogs.

There’s just no confidence right now in picking this team to cover against the spread.

Staff Picks

Why The Game Will Hit The Over (218)

The Thunder may be trending downward against the spread but they are killing it against the over right now. They’ve hit the over two consecutive times now and have done so in four of the last six games. OKC is now an even 50% against the over this season and 61% when playing at home. In the second game of a back-to-back Oklahoma City is hitting the over 63% of the time and Cleveland is going over 51% of the time after a day off.

In the previous meeting this season the game did not hit the over.

On The Season

We nailed the spread pick last night against Charlotte but missed the under by a point and a half.

Against the Spread: 9-15 Last Pick: Charlotte (-5.5 ) at OKC

Over/Under: 13-11 Last Pick: OKC/Charlotte under (213.5)

You can follow all of my NBA picks here.

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