Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: Amalie Arena (Tampa, FL)
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)
Thunder/Raptors Trends Against The Spread
|26-30 (46%)||24-32-1 (42%)|
|16-11 (59%) on the road||12-15-1 (44%) at home|
|24-30 (44%) as an underdog or pick||12-19 (38%) as a favorite|
|15-11 (57%) as a road dog||7-10 (41%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (100%)||0-1 (0%)|
Thunder/Raptors Trends Against The Total
OKC is 27-28-1 against the over this season.
Toronto is 32-25 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 34% of the time on the road.
The Raptors are hitting the over 50% of the time at home.
Toronto is resting its entire starting five tonight so this game could easily turn into a war of attrition among bench players. In the absence of Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam, among others, Gary Trent Jr. most likely becomes the leading scoring option for the Raptors. The Thunder should be very familiar with Trent after his 31-point outburst against them on March 31st.
I’m tabbing the same guys for Oklahoma City as I did for Friday night’s game at Detroit. The key to Thunder success or failure is on the shoulders of Moses Brown and Theo Maledon. Brown posted 20 points in 30 minutes against Toronto in the first meeting between the two teams this summer.
Game 1 | OKC 113 – Toronto 103
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+5.5)
I’m extremely uncomfortable with this but I can’t see a way the Thunder don’t cover tonight. OKC is in the exact same position it was in against Detroit on Friday night when neither wanted to win. Toronto has taken it a step further than the Pistons did by literally resting everyone of high value. This game should be close throughout and while I’m completely against picking OKC against the spread this season I really can’t help myself this time.
The Thunder lost by six at Detroit and Toronto has less firepower than the Pistons did.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (220.5)
You’ve got two teams that trend towards the under on the season and neither wants to win today. Toronto is putting most of its points on the bench for this one and Oklahoma City is putting a bunch of young talent on the floor. The Thunder only hit the over 42% of the time following a day off and Toronto hits it just 34% of the time on the road. The first meeting between these two didn’t hit the over and I don’t expect this one will either.
On The Season
I finally hit both the spread and the over/under on Friday night. That’ll help the season record look just a little better. To say that this team has been frustrating to handicap would be a massive understatement.
Against the Spread: 12-16 Last Pick: Detroit (-2.5 ) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 16-12 Last Pick: OKC/Detroit under (215.5)
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